Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Central Africa
Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Central Africa: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Central Africa

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts1,2252.519,647
Aerial Sample Counts4155822.821,766
Reliable Dung Counts14,8302,6918.062,325
Other Dung Counts132,41254,82710.683,287
Informed Guesses2,50917,89933,94612.497,016
Other Guesses3,5004,1133.829,492
Degraded Data5,3275,3271.18,229
Modeled Extrapolation32,37832,37820.9163,629
Totals 201518,9802,75291,515130,590  
Totals 200614,6394,260264,490268,721  
Assessed Range62.0485,392
Unassessed Range38.0297,693
Total Range100783,085

Summary Totals for Central Africa

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1,225000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts12,4922,7532,7530
Other Dung Counts136,4797,1410
Informed Guesses2,509050,27716,047
Other Guesses7008,827
Totals 201316,23439,23260,17124,874
Totals 200610,37946,77345,221184,283

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-1,290±2,424-7,814-1,8693.829,849
New Population+1,999±732-156,282-141,0018.465,715
Different Technique+4,001±985-171,128-172,1532.922,799
Different Area+3,483±1,301-5,330-3,0429.373,144
New Guess-3,852±4,081-168,094-155,73930.6239,722
Data Degraded00000.86,357
Totals+4,341±5,072-508,648-473,80455.9437,586

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-2,767-2,623+1,006-177
New Population+840+17,541+10,342-15,184
Different Technique+2,619+2,745-1,341-19,422
Different Area+2,217+4,260-4,123-630
New Guess-207-26,132+17,407-10,876
Data Degraded00-4,098+4,319
Totals+2,701-4,208+19,192-41,970

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-5,999-4,700+784-672
New Population+1,821+31,435+8,056-57,671
Different Technique+5,677+4,919-1,045-73,768
Different Area+4,806+7,634-3,212-2,393
New Guess-449-46,830+13,559-41,309
Data Degraded00-3,192+16,404
Totals+5,855-7,541+14,950-159,409

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts8,44611,20019,647
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts69,20214,88984,091
Informed Guesses99,464161,181260,646
Other Dung Counts79,9943,29383,287
Other Guesses32,5295,19237,722
Unassessed Range163,815133,878297,693
Totals453,452329,633783,085

Elephant Estimates

Estimates from SurveysGuessesRange  
CountryEstimate/Number Seen± 95% CLFromToArea (km²)% Regional% AssessedIQI1PFS2
Cameroon2,8346048,75410,90789,7181155.112
Central African Republic7092456521,18124,619389.292
Chad88701822761,490839.312
Congo5,3321,03421,74941,008150,9371937.041
Democratic Republic of Congo2,07657110,71511,878223,2482945.061
Equatorial Guinea8846760019,7013100.572
Gabon6,2582,30251,97867,740213,37327100.081
Totals18,9802,75391,516130,591783,08510062.081

Elephant Estimates

CountryDefiniteProbablePossibleSpeculativeRange Area (km²)% of Regional Range% of Range AssessedIQI1PFS2
Cameroon2,2304,2344,8702,57589,7181155 .252
Central African Republic46424539752924,619389 .382
Chad89401819661,490839 .322
Congo4,29825,4358,0120150,9371937 .291
Democratic Republic of Congo1,7293,8235,2233,687223,2482945 .171
Equatorial Guinea208676676019,7013100 .572
Gabon3,9567,49846,00417,887213,37327100 .151
Totals16,23439,23260,17124,874783,08510062 .241

1IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).

2PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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