Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Swaziland
Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Swaziland: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Swaziland

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Individual Registrations3244.722
Informed Guesses30055.228
Totals 201535000  
Totals 200631000  
Assessed Range99.950
Unassessed Range0.10
Total Range10050

Summary Totals for Swaziland

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts32000
Informed Guesses3000
Totals 201335000
Totals 200631000

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey+400044.722
New Guess000055.228
Totals+400099.950

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+4000
New Guess0000
Totals+4000

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+4000
New Guess0000
Totals+4000

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts22022
Informed Guesses28028
Unassessed Range000
Totals50050

Swaziland: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Hlane Royal National ParkRSIRA201119Reilly, pers. comm., 20121142 31.9E 26.3S
RSIRA201119Reilly, pers. comm., 2012142 31.9E 26.3S
+ Malolotja Nature ReserveNGOD20123Reilly, pers. comm., 2012128 31.1E 26.1S
NGOD20123Reilly, pers. comm., 201228 31.1E 26.1S
+ Mkhaya Nature ReserveRSIRA201113Reilly, pers. comm., 2012 165 31.7E 26.6S
RSIRA201113Reilly, pers. comm., 2012 65 31.7E 26.6S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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