Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Tanzania: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Tanzania

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts10,54814.255,562
Aerial Sample Counts39,7458,50251.6201,377
Other Dung Counts01371370.0188
Informed Guesses1402002001.97,255
Degraded Data1,5931,5932.28,649
Totals 201550,4338,5021,9301,930  
Totals 2006136,75327,9362,0132,313  
Assessed Range70.0273,031
Unassessed Range30.0116,890
Total Range100389,921

Summary Totals for Tanzania

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts10,548000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts31,2438,5028,5020
Other Dung Counts0102350
Informed Guesses14002000
Other Guesses0001,593
Totals 201541,9318,6048,7371,593
Totals 2006108,81627,93729,350900

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-89,504±28,943-400-60055.9218,050
New Population+1,572±2,956+200+2000.72,865
Different Technique-676±821+82+820.93,539
Different Area+2,288±2,3730010.239,928
Data Degraded000-1000.00

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-59,228-30,276-26,992-200
New Population+70+1,502+3,1560
Different Technique-83-491-8060
Different Area+36+2,252+3,3270

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-66,911-21,668-26,103+693
New Population+79+1,075+3,0520
Different Technique-94-351-7790
Different Area+41+1,612+3,2170

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts55,562055,562
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts201,3770201,377
Informed Guesses7,25507,255
Other Dung Counts1880188
Other Guesses8,64908,649
Unassessed Range116,6390116,890

Tanzania: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Arusha National ParkNPOD2014200TAWIRI, 2015a4322 36.8E 3.2S
NPOD2014200TAWIRI, 2015a322 36.8E 3.2S
+ Burigi-Biharamulo EcosystemDTOD2014110TAWIRI, 2015c24,713 30.9E 2.1S
DTOD20140TAWIRI, 2015c731 31.5E 2.5S
DTOD2014110TAWIRI, 2015c2,942 31.2E 2.3S
DTOD20140TAWIRI, 2015c1,040 30.9E 2.1S
+ Inyonga Game Conservation Area-OE2002600Angelides, pers. comm., 200326,050 32.8E 6.8S
-OE2002600Angelides, pers. comm., 20036,050 32.8E 6.8S
Katavi-Rukwa Ecosystem
+ Katavi National ParkRSASB20143,128 1,944TAWIRI, 2015a24,187 31.7E 7.2S
RSASB20143,128 1,944TAWIRI, 2015a4,187 31.7E 7.2S
+ Katavi Rukwa (Outside)DAASB20142,4881,859TAWIRI, 2015a211,673 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20141,090 551TAWIRI, 2015a3,539 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20140TAWIRI, 2015a1,503 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20140TAWIRI, 2015a2,254 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB2014209 218TAWIRI, 2015a1,122 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20141,116 1,756TAWIRI, 2015a695 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB201473 143TAWIRI, 2015a246 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20140TAWIRI, 2015a328 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20140TAWIRI, 2015a131 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20140TAWIRI, 2015a456 31.7E 7.2S
DAASB20140TAWIRI, 2015a1,399 31.7E 7.2S
+ Rukwa Game ReserveRSASB2014122 131TAWIRI, 2015a24,092 31.7E 7.2S
RSASB2014122 131TAWIRI, 2015a4,092 31.7E 7.2S
+ Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve-OE2003793Munishi & Maganga, 20033499 37.2E 3.0S
-OE2003793Munishi & Maganga, 2003499 37.2E 3.0S
+ Mkomazi Game ReserveRSATA201459Kyale et al. 201423,509 38.3E 4.2S
RSATA201459Kyale et al. 20143,509 38.3E 4.2S
+ Moyowosi-Kigosi Game ReserveRSASB20141,6452,389TAWIRI, 2015d119,520 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015d8,407 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB20141,645 2,389TAWIRI, 2015d10,905 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015d208 31.7E 5.2S
+ Natron Landscape and West KilimanjaroRSATA2013200Kenana et al., 2013210,060 36.7E 2.6S
RSATA201363Kenana et al., 20137,047 36.7E 2.6S
RSATA2013137Kenana et al., 20133,013 36.7E 2.6S
+ Piti East Hunting Block-OE2002200 100*Hurt, pers. comm., 200222,223 33.3E 7.1S
-OE2002200 100*Hurt, pers. comm., 20022,223 33.3E 7.1S
Ruaha-Rungwa Ecosystem
+ Itigi ExtensionNPASB20151,553 2,956TAWIRI, 2015f22,596 34.3E 6.9S
NPASB20151,553 2,956TAWIRI, 2015f2,596 34.3E 6.9S
+ Ruaha-Rungwa EcosystemRSASB201514,2846,123TAWIRI, 2015f150,608 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20150TAWIRI, 2015f5,629 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB2015147 278TAWIRI, 2015f4,709 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB2015250 486TAWIRI, 2015f4,624 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20150TAWIRI, 2015f117 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20150TAWIRI, 2015f721 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20153,147 5,012TAWIRI, 2015f4,609 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20150TAWIRI, 2015f122 34.3E 6.9S
RSASD20150TAWIRI, 2015f583 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20156,566 2,458TAWIRI, 2015f20,847 34.3E 6.9S
RSASB20154,174 2,454TAWIRI, 2015f8,647 34.3E 6.9S
+ Rubondo Island National ParkDTDCC2014102 35Mwambola et al., 20164210 31.8E 2.3S
DTDCC2014102 35Mwambola et al., 2016210 31.8E 2.3S
+ Saadani National ParkDTOD201430TAWIRI, 2015a42,502 38.8E 6.0S
DTOD201430TAWIRI, 2015a2,502 38.8E 6.0S
+ Sagara Nyamagoma EcosystemRSASB2014503592TAWIRI, 2015d211,922 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB2014503 592TAWIRI, 2015d9,947 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015d1,975 31.7E 5.2S
Selous-Mikumi Ecosystem
+ MasasiDAASB201416 31TAWIRI, 2015e25,726 37.3E 8.9S
DAASB201416 31TAWIRI, 2015e5,726 37.3E 8.9S
+ Selous-Mikumi EcosystemRSASB201414,0403,252TAWIRI, 2015e183,907 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015e1,280 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015e3,744 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB20141,095 817TAWIRI, 2015e11,996 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB2014257 180TAWIRI, 2015e9,178 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB2014239 325TAWIRI, 2015e3,173 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB2014885 588TAWIRI, 2015e3,385 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB2014145 23TAWIRI, 2015e692 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015e427 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015e860 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB20140TAWIRI, 2015e1,849 37.3E 8.9S
RSASB201411,419 3,069TAWIRI, 2015e47,323 37.3E 8.9S
+ Selous-NiassaDAASB20141,161 1,341TAWIRI, 2015e216,097 37.3E 8.9S
DAASB20141,161 1,341TAWIRI, 2015e16,097 37.3E 8.9S
Serengeti Ecosystem
+ Loliondo Game Controlled AreaRSATA20090TAWIRI, 2009b25,356 35.0E 2.5S
RSATA20090TAWIRI, 2009b5,356 35.0E 2.5S
+ Serengeti EcosystemRSATA20146,087Mduma et al., 2014223,660 34.8E 2.6S
RSATA201476Mduma et al., 2014297 34.8E 2.6S
RSATA20146,011Mduma et al., 201423,363 34.8E 2.6S
Tarangire Ecosystem
+ Lake ManyaraRSATA2014104TAWIRI, 2015e3882 36.2E 4.0S
RSATA201470TAWIRI, 2015e547 36.2E 4.0S
RSATA201434TAWIRI, 2015e335 36.2E 4.0S
+ Mto wa MbuNPATA201419TAWIRI, 2015e4191 36.2E 4.0S
NPATA201419TAWIRI, 2015e191 36.2E 4.0S
+ Tarangire National ParkRSATA20143,282TAWIRI, 2015e22,637 36.2E 4.0S
RSATA20143,282TAWIRI, 2015e2,637 36.2E 4.0S
+ Tarangire (Outside)DAATA2014797TAWIRI, 2015e213,657 36.2E 4.0S
DAATA2014220TAWIRI, 2015e849 36.2E 4.0S
DAATA201444TAWIRI, 2015e1,452 36.2E 4.0S
DAATA2014425TAWIRI, 2015e818 36.2E 4.0S
DAATA201485TAWIRI, 2015e4,691 36.2E 4.0S
DAATA20142TAWIRI, 2015e2,523 36.2E 4.0S
DAATA201421TAWIRI, 2015e3,324 36.2E 4.0S
+ Ugalla EastRSASB2014146 278TAWIRI, 2015d26,391 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB2014146 278TAWIRI, 2015d6,391 31.7E 5.2S
+ Ugalla Game ReserveRSASB2014659 549TAWIRI, 2015d24,857 31.7E 5.2S
RSASB2014659 549TAWIRI, 2015d4,857 31.7E 5.2S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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