Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Mozambique
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Mozambique: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Mozambique

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts8830.82,422
Aerial Sample Counts9,9962,22929.193,274
Informed Guesses5211665.116,336
Other Guesses4,2785,35346.7149,636
Totals 201510,8842,2284,2995,519  
Totals 200614,8472,2607,1499,072  
Assessed Range81.7261,669
Unassessed Range18.358,732
Total Range100320,402

Summary Totals for Mozambique

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts883000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts7,7672,2292,2290
Informed Guesses5021145
Other Guesses0004,278
Totals 20158,6552,2292,2504,423
Totals 200612,5872,2602,4976,980

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-8,613±2,7300013.743,933
New Population+2,127±1,326006.119,581
Different Technique+2,608±918-5,130-6,83011.637,099
Different Area-90±149000.72,195
New Guess+50+2,280+3,27749.6158,861
Totals-3,963±3,175-2,850-3,55381.7261,669

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-9,885+1,272+2,5430
New Population+431+1,696+2,1500
Different Technique+677+1,931+2,786-4,980
Different Area-15-75-1770
New Guess+50-16+2,683
Totals-8,787+4,824+7,287-2,297

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-4,423-8-860
New Population+193-11-730
Different Technique+303-12-94-5,544
Different Area-70+60
New Guess+20+1+2,987
Totals-3,932-31-247-2,557

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts2,42202,422
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts90,5282,74693,274
Informed Guesses15,70862816,336
Other Guesses121,48528,151149,636
Unassessed Range53,2435,48958,732
Totals283,38737,014320,402

Mozambique: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Banhine National ParkNGOD20125Stalmans, pers. comm., 201226,510 32.9E 22.8S
NGOD20125Stalmans, pers. comm., 20126,510 32.9E 22.8S
Cahora Bassa
+ Cahora Bassa NorthDAASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b23,028 31.7E 15.9S
DAASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b1,082 31.7E 15.9S
DAASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b776 31.7E 15.9S
DAASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b454 31.7E 15.9S
DAASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b300 31.7E 15.9S
DAASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b416 31.7E 15.9S
+ Magoe DistrictRSASB20141,051721Grossmann et al., 2014b22,290 31.7E 15.9S
RSASB2014395 443Grossmann et al., 2014b369 31.7E 15.9S
RSASB2014372 463Grossmann et al., 2014b369 31.7E 15.9S
RSASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b151 31.7E 15.9S
RSASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b656 31.7E 15.9S
RSASB2014284 475Grossmann et al., 2014b745 31.7E 15.9S
+ Tete Province-SouthDTASB2014604431Grossmann et al., 2014b114,500 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB201483 125Grossmann et al., 2014b1,322 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB2014135 214Grossmann et al., 2014b705 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b902 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB201462 115Grossmann et al., 2014b1,231 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b991 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB201448 91Grossmann et al., 2014b599 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b1,183 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b540 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b559 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b723 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB201417 37Grossmann et al., 2014b1,088 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB2014114 215Grossmann et al., 2014b1,401 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b875 31.7E 15.9S
DTASD20140Grossmann et al., 2014b797 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB20145 9Grossmann et al., 2014b771 31.7E 15.9S
DTASB2014140 277Grossmann et al., 2014b813 31.7E 15.9S
+ Gilé National ReserveNGOD201221 145*Ntumi et al., 201222,456 38.4E 16.6S
NGOD201221 145*Ntumi et al., 20122,456 38.4E 16.6S
+ Gorongosa National ParkDTATA2014535Stalmans et al., 201431,832 34.4E 18.9S
DTATA2014535Stalmans et al., 20141,832 34.4E 18.9S
Limpopo
+ Limpopo ExtensionNPASB2014173259Grossman et al., 2014e23,240 32.0E 23.7S
NPASB2014173 312Grossman et al., 2014e1,524 32.0E 23.7S
NPASB20140Grossman et al., 2014e1,716 32.0E 23.7S
+ Limpopo National ParkDTASB20141,081641Grossman et al., 2014e211,971 32.0E 23.7S
DTASB201484 143Grossman et al., 2014e5,534 32.0E 23.7S
DTASB2014320 454Grossman et al., 2014e3,189 32.0E 23.7S
DTASB2014677 475Grossman et al., 2014e3,248 32.0E 23.7S
+ Maputo Elephant ReserveDTATA2008348Matthews, 20083827 32.8E 26.5S
DTATA2008348Matthews, 2008827 32.8E 26.5S
+ Marromeu Game ReserveNPASB2014606 634Grossmann et al., 2014a22,307 35.9E 18.7S
NPASB2014606 634Grossmann et al., 2014a2,307 35.9E 18.7S
+ Massangena WestNPASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 201531,574 32.1E 21.7S
NPASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015413 32.1E 21.7S
NPASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015416 32.1E 21.7S
NPASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015745 32.1E 21.7S
Northern
+ Chipanje ChetuNPASB2011333 309Craig, 2012a26,641 35.2E 12.3S
NPASB2011333 309Craig, 2012a6,641 35.2E 12.3S
+ Niassa Adjacent BlocksNPASB20141,015591Grossman et al., 2014d26,697 37.3E 12.2S
NPASB201461 81Grossman et al., 2014d3,012 37.3E 12.2S
NPASB2014827 577Grossman et al., 2014d2,258 37.3E 12.2S
NPASB2014127 237Grossman et al., 2014d1,427 37.3E 12.2S
+ Niassa EcosystemRSASB20144,4411,360Grossman et al., 2014d142,168 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20140Grossman et al., 2014d208 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20140Grossman et al., 2014d3,300 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014218 269Grossman et al., 2014d4,194 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20141,231 977Grossman et al., 2014d2,652 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014698 474Grossman et al., 2014d2,235 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014315 333Grossman et al., 2014d1,809 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014131 282Grossman et al., 2014d2,285 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20141,046 579Grossman et al., 2014d4,353 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014159 224Grossman et al., 2014d2,124 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20140Grossman et al., 2014d2,888 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20140Grossman et al., 2014d230 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB201477 117Grossman et al., 2014d3,442 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014172 224Grossman et al., 2014d2,243 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB2014319 431Grossman et al., 2014d2,689 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB201475 157Grossman et al., 2014d3,695 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20140Grossman et al., 2014d1,495 37.3E 12.2S
RSASB20140Grossman et al., 2014d2,326 37.3E 12.2S
+ Quirimbas CorridorDTASB2014306 365Grossmann, et al. 2014c23,605 39.6E 12.5S
DTASB2014306 365Grossmann, et al. 2014c3,605 39.6E 12.5S
+ Quirimbas National ParkDTASB2014328361Grossmann, et al. 2014c211,298 39.6E 12.5S
DTASB2014328 384Grossmann, et al. 2014c4,788 39.6E 12.5S
DTASB20140Grossmann, et al. 2014c6,510 39.6E 12.5S
+ PalmaDTASB201158 83Craig, 2012b23,816 39.6E 12.0S
DTASB201158 83Craig, 2012b3,816 39.6E 12.0S
+ Rest of Mozambique rangeNGOE20084,278 1,075*Agreco, 20081333,225 35.8E 18.3S
NGOE20084,278 1,075*Agreco, 2008333,225 35.8E 18.3S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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