Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Nigeria
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Nigeria: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Nigeria

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts00.00
Informed Guesses943332722.44,495
Other Guesses7728.55,731
Degraded Data1291295.21,054
Totals 2015940169463  
Totals 20063480380480  
Assessed Range56.211,281
Unassessed Range43.88,807
Total Range10020,088

Summary Totals for Nigeria

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts0000
Informed Guesses94033294
Other Guesses000136
Totals 201594033430
Totals 20063480105375

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population00+12+1531.06,227
New Guess-2540-98+18919.93,999
Population Lost00-125-1650.00
Data Degraded000-560.00
Totals-2540-211-1750.911,281

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population00+5+10
New Guess-2540+22+167
Population Lost00-25-140
Totals-2540+2+37

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population00-180+15
New Guess-2540-792+248
Population Lost00+900-208
Totals-2540-72+55

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Informed Guesses4,2812154,495
Other Guesses2596,5276,786
Unassessed Range7,3051,5028,807
Totals11,8448,24420,088

Nigeria: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Andoni IslandNGOD20112 12*Ijeomah & Esaen, 20112215 7.5E 4.5N
NGOD20112 12*Ijeomah & Esaen, 2011215 7.5E 4.5N
+ Chad Basin National ParkPLOD20150Saidu, pers. comm., 201512,160 14.4E 11.7N
PLOD20150Saidu, pers. comm., 20152,160 14.4E 11.7N
+ Cross River National Park-DCE199874 56Obot et al., 19981239 9.2E 6.3N
-DCE199874 56Obot et al., 1998239 9.2E 6.3N
+ Gashaka GumtiPLOE20100Sommer, pers. comm., 201615,960 11.7E 7.5N
PLOE20100Sommer, pers. comm., 20165,960 11.7E 7.5N
+ Ifon Game ReserveNPOD20075 3*Adeleke et al., 20072283 5.8E 7.1N
NPOD20075 3*Adeleke et al., 2007283 5.8E 7.1N
+ Kainji Lake National ParkNPOE20137Isikhuemen, pers. comm., 201615,340 4.3E 10.0N
NPOE20137Isikhuemen, pers. comm., 20165,340 4.3E 10.0N
+ Kambari PLOD20150Dunn, pers. comm., 201522,000 10.6E 8.8N
PLOD20150Dunn, pers. comm., 20152,000 10.6E 8.8N
+ KamukuNGOD201526Saidu, pers. comm., 201512,855 6.6E 11.0N
NGOD201526Saidu, pers. comm., 20152,855 6.6E 11.0N
+ Marguba Forest ReservePLATA20060Omondi et al., 20062710 12.7E 11.5N
PLATA20060Omondi et al., 2006710 12.7E 11.5N
+ Okomu Game SanctuaryNGOD201512Saidu, pers. comm., 201521,082 5.1E 6.3N
NGOD201512Saidu, pers. comm., 20151,082 5.1E 6.3N
+ Omo Forest Reserve-OE199430 20*Mshelbwala, 199821,300 3.6E 6.8N
-OE199430 20*Mshelbwala, 19981,300 3.6E 6.8N
+ Sambisa Game ReservePLATA20060Omondi et al., 20062647 13.4E 11.3N
PLATA20060Omondi et al., 2006647 13.4E 11.3N
+ Taylor Creek-OE199325Thouless, 19932145 6.4E 5.2N
-OE199325Thouless, 1993145 6.4E 5.2N
+ Yankari National ParkNGOD201182 279*Bergl et al., 201112,244 10.4E 9.8N
NGOD201182 279*Bergl et al., 20112,244 10.4E 9.8N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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