Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Central African Republic
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Central African Republic: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Central African Republic

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Sample Counts6811369.217,034
Reliable Dung Counts63121814.63,606
Informed Guesses31993264.81,172
Degraded Data5005000.00
Totals 2015702245699826  
Totals 20069298201,5852,085  
Assessed Range88.621,812
Unassessed Range11.42,807
Total Range10024,619

Summary Totals for Central African Republic

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts4542452450
Informed Guesses30199127
Other Guesses000500
Totals 2015457245444627
Totals 20061091,6891,036500

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population+30+47+1471.7416
Different Technique+631±218-869-86914.63,606
Different Area-861±8280069.217,034
New Guess00+152+1793.1756
Data Degraded000-5000.00
Totals-227±856-670-1,04388.621,812

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+30+47+100
Different Technique+443-681+1990
Different Area-14-847-8400
New Guess00+152+27
Totals+432-1,528-443+127

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+20+63+100
Different Technique+357-644+2660
Different Area-11-800-1,1230
New Guess00+203+27
Totals+348-1,444-592+127

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts20,640020,640
Informed Guesses1,17201,172
Unassessed Range8721,9352,807
Totals22,6841,93524,619

Central African Republic: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Bangassou Forest Reserve-OE2004500 500*Blake, 2005112,011 23.3E 5.2N
-OE2004500 500*Blake, 200512,011 23.3E 5.2N
+ Chinko Drainage BasinNPOD201550 100*Aebischer, pers. comm., 2016 119,000 23.9E 6.5N
NPOD201550 100*Aebischer, pers. comm., 2016 19,000 23.9E 6.5N
+ Dzangha Ndoki National Park and Special ReserveDTDCB2012631218Princée, 201313,861 16.2E 2.8N
DTDCB20120Princée, 2013937 16.2E 2.8N
DTDCB201236 21Princée, 2013587 16.2E 2.8N
DTDCB2012183 108Princée, 2013497 16.2E 2.8N
DTDCB201215 25Princée, 2013400 16.2E 2.8N
DTDCB2012204 151Princée, 2013686 16.2E 2.8N
DTDCB2012193 -109Princée, 2013754 16.2E 2.8N
+ Northern LandscapeDAASB201068 113Bouché, 2011194,962 20.8E 8.2N
DAASB201068 113Bouché, 201194,962 20.8E 8.2N
+ Yobe-LidjombeNGOD2012152 27*Princée, 20132756 16.3E 2.7N
NGOD2012152 27*Princée, 2013756 16.3E 2.7N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

IUCNSpecies Survival Commission

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