Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Malawi
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Malawi: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Malawi

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts1,17449.33,842
Ground Total Counts1331.8136
Informed Guesses039839821.01,637
Totals 20151,3070398398  
Totals 20065083231,8761,896  
Assessed Range72.15,616
Unassessed Range27.92,173
Total Range1007,789

Summary Totals for Malawi

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1,307000
Informed Guesses003980
Totals 20151,30703980
Totals 20062593236321,513

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Different Technique+869±323-1,734-1,75460.44,706
New Guess-700+256+25611.7910
Totals+799±323-1,478-1,49872.15,616

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Different Technique+1,067-272-624-1,513
New Guess-700+2560
Totals+997-272-368-1,513

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Different Technique+1,122-323-397-1,513
New Guess-740+1630
Totals+1,048-323-234-1,513

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1,6412,3383,979
Informed Guesses1,63701,637
Unassessed Range1,7164572,173
Totals4,9942,7957,789

Malawi: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Kasungu National ParkDTATA201440 Macpherson, 2015a12,316 33.1E 12.9S
DTATA201440 Macpherson, 2015a2,316 33.1E 12.9S
+ Liwonde National ParkDTATA2014777 Macpherson, 2015b1675 35.3E 14.9S
DTATA2014777 Macpherson, 2015b675 35.3E 14.9S
+ Majete Wildlife ReserveNGOD2015300Fearnhead, pers. comm., 20151860 34.6E 15.9S
NGOD2015300Fearnhead, pers. comm., 2015860 34.6E 15.9S
+ Nkhotakota Wildlife ReserveDTGSD201392Sichali & Mkumbwa, 20141747 34.1E 13.0S
DTGSD201392Sichali & Mkumbwa, 2014747 34.1E 13.0S
+ Nyika National ParkDTATA201347Macpherson, 2013b11,679 33.8E 10.6S
DTATA201347Macpherson, 2013b1,679 33.8E 10.6S
+ Phirilongwe Forest ReserveNGOD20096Kaunga-Nyirenda, pers. comm., 20141640 35.0E 14.5S
NGOD20096Kaunga-Nyirenda, pers. comm., 2014640 35.0E 14.5S
+ Thuma and Dedza Salima Forest ReservesDTGTA2015133Clifford, 20161418 34.3E 14.0S
DTGTA201579Clifford, 2016320 34.3E 14.0S
DTGTA201554Clifford, 201698 34.3E 14.0S
+ Vwaza Marsh Wildlife ReserveDTATA2013310Macpherson, pers. comm., 2013c1978 33.4E 11.0S
DTATA2013310Macpherson, pers. comm., 2013c978 33.4E 11.0S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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