Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Namibia
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Namibia: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Namibia

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Sample Counts22,7544,30641.568,121
Informed Guesses090909.916,162
Totals 201522,7544,3059090  
Totals 200615,8073,2762020  
Assessed Range51.484,283
Unassessed Range48.679,786
Total Range100164,069

Summary Totals for Namibia

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts18,4484,3064,3060
Informed Guesses00900
Totals 201518,4484,3064,3960
Totals 200612,5313,2763,2960

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey+6,947±5,4100049.881,727
New Guess00+70+701.62,556
Totals+6,947±5,410+70+7051.484,283

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-1,326+8,273+10,6580
New Guess00+700
Totals-1,326+8,273+10,7280

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+5,916+1,030+1,0930
New Guess00+70
Totals+5,917+1,030+1,1000

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts65,4382,68368,121
Informed Guesses15,90325916,162
Unassessed Range31,13048,65579,786
Totals112,47151,598164,069

Namibia: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Etosha National ParkRSASB20152,911637Kilian, 2015118,549 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015405 214Kilian, 20151,728 15.8E 19.0S
RSASD20150Kilian, 20152,811 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015300 202Kilian, 20151,489 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB201565 94Kilian, 20151,427 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB201512 28Kilian, 20151,145 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015549 261Kilian, 20152,038 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015458 332Kilian, 2015918 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015448 261Kilian, 2015921 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB201591 70Kilian, 2015260 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB20150Kilian, 20152,396 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB201584 56Kilian, 20151,007 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB201568 99Kilian, 2015701 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015160 126Kilian, 2015601 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB20150Kilian, 2015442 15.8E 19.0S
RSASB2015271 266Kilian, 2015665 15.8E 19.0S
+ Khaudum-KavangoRSASB20154,1491,864Gibson & Craig, 2015a25,843 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB20152,152 936Gibson & Craig, 2015a1,284 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB20151,299 1,611Gibson & Craig, 2015a1,558 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015507 759Gibson & Craig, 2015a760 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB201532 44Gibson & Craig, 2015a1,486 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015159 272Gibson & Craig, 2015a755 20.7E 19.3S
+ KuneneRSASB2011314154MET, 2012140,887 14.1E 20.0S
RSASD20110MET, 201210,838 15.6E 19.1S
RSASB2011314 154MET, 201230,049 14.1E 20.0S
+ Mangetti AreaNGOD201590Lindeque, pers. comm., 201622,558 18.5E 18.6S
NGOD201590Lindeque, pers. comm., 20162,558 18.5E 18.6S
+ Nyae Nyae ConservancyRSASB20152,2641,729Gibson & Craig, 2015a27,001 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015664 1,795Gibson & Craig, 2015a1,090 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB201527 57Gibson & Craig, 2015a846 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB201520 56Gibson & Craig, 2015a927 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015512 602Gibson & Craig, 2015a1,391 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015105 129Gibson & Craig, 2015a656 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015802 1,167Gibson & Craig, 2015a1,963 20.7E 19.3S
RSASB2015134 175Gibson & Craig, 2015a128 20.7E 19.3S
+ Zambezi RegionRSASB201513,1163,413Gibson & Craig, 2015b117,473 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB20153,166 1,527Gibson & Craig, 2015b1,171 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2015306 343Gibson & Craig, 2015b3,819 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2015346 664Gibson & Craig, 2015b4,755 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2015498 537Gibson & Craig, 2015b3,125 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB20155,219 2,591Gibson & Craig, 2015b1,525 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2015138 193Gibson & Craig, 2015b672 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2015743 1,247Gibson & Craig, 2015b1,263 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB20152,700 1,259Gibson & Craig, 2015b1,143 23.5E 17.9S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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