Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Kenya
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Kenya: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Kenya

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts21,15369.891,227
Individual Registrations1,6562.73,553
Informed Guesses03724393.44,465
Degraded Data7,6517,6514.25,466
Totals 201522,80908,0238,090  
Totals 200623,9946416,0127,000  
Assessed Range80.1104,711
Unassessed Range19.926,014
Total Range100130,725

Summary Totals for Kenya

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts22,809000
Informed Guesses0040056
Other Guesses0007,651
Totals 201522,80904007,707
Totals 200623,3531,3164,9462,021

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey+1,14200055.572,559
New Population+890001.21,539
Different Technique+7790-513-4768.110,548
Different Area-60-100-1008.411,021
New Guess-940-60-602.73,577
Data Degraded-3,095±641+3,095+2,1370.00
Totals-1,185±641+2,422+1,50175.9104,711

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+1,142000
New Population+89000
Different Technique+779-849-360+26
Different Area-6-50-66-30
New Guess-94-210+1500
Totals+1,910-1,109-276-4

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-325000
New Population-25000
Different Technique-222-1,007-5,931-36,959
Different Area+2-59-1,087+42,645
New Guess+27-249+2,4710
Totals-544-1,316-4,546+5,686

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts93,80397794,780
Informed Guesses4,46504,465
Other Guesses5,423435,466
Unassessed Range20,2475,76726,014
Totals123,9376,787130,725

Kenya: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
Aberdares
+ Aberdare National Park-OE20051,840 461*Bitok & Kones, 20052767 36.7E 0.4S
-OE20051,840 461*Bitok & Kones, 2005767 36.7E 0.4S
+ Aberdare Outside-OE20051,700 472*Bitok & Kones, 20052663 36.7E 0.6S
-OE20051,700 472*Bitok & Kones, 2005663 36.7E 0.6S
+ Kipipiri Forest Reserve-OE200513 25*Bitok & Kones, 2005343 36.6E 0.4S
-OE200513 25*Bitok & Kones, 200543 36.6E 0.4S
+ Amboseli EcosystemDTIRA20151,656Fishlock, pers. comm., 201625,547 37.3E 2.5S
DTIRA20151,656Fishlock, pers. comm., 20165,547 37.3E 2.5S
+ Arabuko Sokoke Forest Reserve-DCE2002184 43Litoroh, 2002b3415 39.9E 3.3S
-DCE2002184 43Litoroh, 2002b415 39.9E 3.3S
+ Kerio ValleyRSATA2015311Chase et al., 20163122 36.7E 0.6N
RSATA2015311Chase et al., 2016122 36.7E 0.6N
+ Laikipia-Samburu EcosystemRSATA20126,365Ngene et al., 2013135,247 37.3E 1.0N
RSATA20126,365Ngene et al., 201335,247 37.3E 1.0N
+ Lamu DistrictDAATA201560Chase et al., 2016115,363 36.7E 0.6N
DAATA201560Chase et al., 201615,363 36.7E 0.6N
+ Loroki ForestNGOD20150Thouless, pers. comm., 20162596 36.8E 1.1N
NGOD20150Thouless, pers. comm., 2016596 36.8E 1.1N
+ Magadi EcosystemDTATA2013449Kenana et al., 201326,348 36.9E 2.4S
DTATA2013449Kenana et al., 20136,348 36.9E 2.4S
Mara Ecosystem
+ Masai Mara National ReserveRSATA2014876Mduma et al. 201421,509 35.6E 1.3S
RSATA2014876Mduma et al. 20141,509 35.6E 1.3S
+ Masai Mara OutsideRSATA2014532Mduma et al. 201421,978 35.6E 1.3S
RSATA2014532Mduma et al. 20141,978 35.6E 1.3S
+ North Narok LandscapeNPATA201420Mduma et al. 20142310 35.9E 1.1S
NPATA201420Mduma et al. 2014310 35.9E 1.1S
+ TransmaraDTOD2015100Sitati, pers. comm., 20163320 34.9E 1.2S
DTOD2015100Sitati, pers. comm., 2016320 34.9E 1.2S
+ MarsabitDTDCD2014100 39Kiambi et al., 20143137 38.0E 2.3N
DTDCD2014100 39Kiambi et al., 2014137 38.0E 2.3N
+ Mau Forest Complex-DCE19951,003Njumbi, et al., 199521,267 35.5E 0.5S
-DCE19951,003Njumbi, et al., 19951,267 35.5E 0.5S
Meru Ecosystem
+ Kora National ParkNGOD20140Kiambi, 201621,618 38.7E 0.2S
NGOD20140Kiambi, 20161,618 38.7E 0.2S
+ Meru National Park and Northwest BisanadiDTATA2015659Chase et al., 201621,005 36.7E 0.6N
DTATA2015659Chase et al., 20161,005 36.7E 0.6N
+ Mwingi National ReserveRSATA20070Mwangi et al., 20073682 37.6E 0.1N
RSATA20070Mwangi et al., 2007682 37.6E 0.1N
+ Rahole National ReserveNPATA200727Mwangi et al., 200721,477 37.6E 0.1N
NPATA200727Mwangi et al., 20071,477 37.6E 0.1N
+ Southeast Bisanadi National ReserveDTOD20140Kiambi, 20163593 38.4E 0.1N
DTOD20140Kiambi, 2016593 38.4E 0.1N
+ Mt Elgon National Park & National ReserveNGOD2015200Redmond, 201521,083 34.6E 1.0N
NGOD2015200Redmond, 20151,083 34.6E 1.0N
+ Mt Kenya National Park & National Reserve-DCE20012,911 640Vanleeuwe, 200422,007 37.4E 0.2S
-DCE20012,911 640Vanleeuwe, 20042,007 37.4E 0.2S
+ Mwea National ReserveDAATA201571Chase et al., 2016479 36.7E 0.6N
DAATA201571Chase et al., 201679 36.7E 0.6N
+ Nasolot and S. TurkanaRSATA2015351Chase et al., 20163581 36.7E 0.6N
RSATA20150Chase et al., 2016103 36.7E 0.6N
RSATA2015351Chase et al., 2016478 36.7E 0.6N
+ Shimba Hills EcosystemDTATA2012274Ngene & Mukeka, 20123274 39.4E 4.3S
DTATA2012159Ngene & Mukeka, 201237 39.4E 4.3S
DTATA2012115Ngene & Mukeka, 2012237 39.4E 4.3S
Tsavo Ecosystem
+ Chyulu National ParkNPATA201442Kyale et al., 201431,180 38.5E 2.9S
NPATA201442Kyale et al., 20141,180 38.5E 2.9S
+ South Kitui National ReserveRSATA20140Kyale et al., 201421,930 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA20140Kyale et al., 20141,930 38.5E 2.9S
+ Tsavo National ParkRSATA20149,504Kyale et al., 2014120,432 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA20141,257Kyale et al., 20149,243 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA20145,329Kyale et al., 20144,230 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA20142,918Kyale et al., 20146,959 38.5E 2.9S
+ Tsavo (Outside)RSATA20141,612Kyale et al., 2014121,081 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA201412Kyale et al., 20146,434 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA201431Kyale et al., 20146,373 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA2014149Kyale et al., 20141,403 38.5E 2.9S
RSATA20141,420Kyale et al., 20146,871 38.5E 2.9S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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