Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Eastern Africa
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Eastern Africa: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Eastern Africa

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts32,96017.2151,113
Individual Registrations1,6560.43,553
Aerial Sample Counts50,85110,54936.1317,490
Reliable Dung Counts1180.0132
Other Dung Counts01371370.0188
Informed Guesses7882,4292,5166.557,360
Degraded Data9,4079,4072.118,751
Totals 201586,37310,54911,97312,060  
Totals 2006165,15127,99010,72212,066  
Assessed Range62.3548,587
Unassessed Range37.7332,061
Total Range100880,648

Summary Totals for Eastern Africa

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts34,616000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts40,42010,54910,5490
Other Dung Counts0102350
Informed Guesses78802,45776
Other Guesses0009,407
Totals 201575,82410,65113,0419,483
Totals 2006137,16129,04335,6503,343

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-87,414±29,058-400-60034.0299,558
New Population+8,665±6,609+270+27015.7138,435
Different Technique+861±821-911-9202.118,088
Different Area+2,693±2,373-547-5476.052,754
New Guess-4880+171+1812.421,200
Data Degraded-3,095±641+3,095+2,0370.00
Totals-78,778±29,912+1,678+42160.2548,587

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-58,600-28,814-25,553-200
New Population+507+8,158+11,1330
Different Technique+1,383-1,269-1,646-20
Different Area+441+2,202+2,814-30
New Guess-488-603+799-230
Totals-56,756-20,327-12,454-480

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-63,329-26,071-46,389+2,558
New Population+548+7,381+20,2100
Different Technique+1,495-1,148-2,988+256
Different Area+477+1,992+5,108+384
New Guess-527-546+1,451+2,942
Totals-61,337-18,392-22,609+6,140

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts153,688977154,666
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts302,94214,680317,622
Informed Guesses48,5918,76957,360
Other Dung Counts1880188
Other Guesses15,6194315,662
Unassessed Range214,531115,844330,625
Totals735,559140,314876,123

Elephant Estimates

Estimates from SurveysGuessesRange  
CountryEstimate/Number Seen± 95% CLFromToArea (km²)% Regional% AssessedIQI1PFS2
Eritrea001001205,2751100.003
Ethiopia1,01701,1601,16022,264384.392
Kenya22,80908,0238,090130,7251580.592
Rwanda88037371,079099.704
Somalia0070704,525168.003
South Sudan7,1035,91100309,8113542.231
Tanzania50,4338,5021,9301,930389,9214470.581
Uganda4,9232,01265365317,048279.512
Totals86,37310,54911,97312,060880,64810062.491

Elephant Estimates

CountryDefiniteProbablePossibleSpeculativeRange Area (km²)% of Regional Range% of Range AssessedIQI1PFS2
Eritrea00100205,2751100 .003
Ethiopia1,01701,160022,264384 .392
Kenya22,80904007,707130,7251580 .592
Rwanda8800371,079099 .704
Somalia000704,525168 .003
South Sudan1,1925,9115,9110309,8113542 .231
Tanzania41,9318,6048,7371,593389,9214470 .581
Uganda2,9112,0122,6095617,048279 .512
Totals75,82410,65113,0419,483880,64810062 .491

1IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).

2PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

IUCNSpecies Survival Commission

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