| Estimates from Surveys | Guesses | % Known and Possible Range | Area (km2) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey category | Estimate | ± 95% CL | From | To | ||
| Aerial Total Counts | 56,859 | — | — | — | 8.0 | 250,959 |
| Individual Registrations | 222 | — | — | — | 0.0 | 685 |
| Aerial Sample Counts | 340,278 | 25,274 | — | — | 24.2 | 757,052 |
| Ground Sample Counts | 7,947 | 2,366 | — | — | 0.4 | 11,235 |
| Reliable Dung Counts | 11,473 | 2,502 | — | — | 2.2 | 67,616 |
| Other Dung Counts | 16 | — | 40,722 | 66,628 | 2.8 | 86,477 |
| Informed Guesses | 5,217 | — | 26,670 | 41,017 | 11.8 | 368,543 |
| Other Guesses | — | — | 4,108 | 4,721 | 1.3 | 39,165 |
| Degraded Data | — | — | 33,850 | 33,850 | 3.2 | 100,710 |
| Modeled Extrapolation | — | — | 32,378 | 32,378 | 5.2 | 163,629 |
| Totals 2015 | 422,012 | 25,507 | 137,727 | 178,593 | ||
| Totals 2006 | 503,380 | 36,546 | 286,628 | 295,085 | ||
| Assessed Range | 58.9 | 1,846,073 | ||||
| Unassessed Range | 41.1 | 1,286,165 | ||||
| Total Range | 100 | 3,132,238 | ||||
| Data Category | Definite | Probable | Possible | Speculative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerial or Ground Total Counts | 57,081 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts | 334,178 | 25,507 | 25,507 | 0 |
| Other Dung Counts | 16 | 44,844 | 8,493 | 0 |
| Informed Guesses | 5,217 | 0 | 59,048 | 14,347 |
| Other Guesses | 3,494 | 0 | 0 | 34,471 |
| Totals 2013 | 399,986 | 70,351 | 93,048 | 48,818 |
| Estimates from Surveys | Guesses | Area | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cause of Change | Estimate | ± 95% CL | From | To | % Known and Possible | Total |
| Repeat Survey | -65,181 | ±29,125 | -7,963 | -1,926 | 16.4 | 514,269 |
| New Population | +11,363 | ±5,927 | -156,038 | -140,717 | 5.9 | 183,508 |
| Different Technique | +12,220 | ±3,241 | -180,769 | -183,657 | 5.0 | 156,921 |
| Different Area | -6,536 | ±13,919 | -4,884 | -2,472 | 6.1 | 189,876 |
| New Guess | -6,373 | ±4,108 | -163,236 | -144,990 | 14.6 | 458,813 |
| Data Degraded | -22,580 | ±2,371 | +21,947 | +21,446 | 2.1 | 65,566 |
| Totals | -77,087 | ±33,319 | -490,943 | -452,316 | 50.1 | 1,568,953 |
No changes between current and previous report.
| Data Category | Known Range | Possible Range | Total Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerial or Ground Total Counts | 235,443 | 16,201 | 251,644 |
| Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts | 723,999 | 111,904 | 835,903 |
| Informed Guesses | 321,495 | 209,331 | 530,826 |
| Other Dung Counts | 83,125 | 3,352 | 86,477 |
| Other Guesses | 112,932 | 23,855 | 136,787 |
| Unassessed Range | 621,227 | 542,888 | 1,284,722 |
| Totals | 2,098,222 | 907,531 | 3,126,359 |
| Estimates from Surveys | Guesses | Range | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Estimate/Number Seen | ± 95% CL | From | To | Area (km²) | % Regional | % Assessed | IQI1 | PFS2 |
| Central Africa | 14,699 | 2,562 | 95,110 | 128,285 | 783,085 | 25 | 62 | 0.06 | 1 |
| Eastern Africa | 99,751 | 11,433 | 12,090 | 13,048 | 880,648 | 28 | 56 | 0.45 | 1 |
| Southern Africa | 297,603 | 22,532 | 26,205 | 32,359 | 1,325,998 | 42 | 58 | 0.49 | 1 |
| West Africa | 9,959 | 2,373 | 4,599 | 5,178 | 142,500 | 5 | 67 | 0.38 | 1 |
| Totals | 422,012 | 25,507 | 137,728 | 178,594 | 3,132,238 | 100 | 59 | 0.4 | |
| Region | Definite | Probable | Possible | Speculative | Range Area (km²) | % of Continental Range | % of Range Assessed | IQI1 | PFS2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Africa | 16,234 | 39,232 | 60,171 | 24,874 | 783,085 | 25 | 62 | .24 | 2 |
| Eastern Africa | 88,503 | 12,324 | 15,674 | 7,731 | 880,655 | 28 | 56 | .45 | 2 |
| Southern Africa | 278,046 | 22,532 | 30,802 | 21,103 | 1,325,998 | 42 | 58 | .50 | 1 |
| West Africa | 7,900 | 2,626 | 2,589 | 4,285 | 142,500 | 5 | 67 | .41 | 3 |
| Totals | 404,247 | 63,150 | 95,397 | 57,993 | 3,132,238 | 100 | 59 | .44 |
1IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).
2PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.
Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.
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