Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Central African Republic
Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Central African Republic: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Central African Republic

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Sample Counts6811369.217,034
Reliable Dung Counts63121814.63,606
Informed Guesses101521814.81,172
Other Guesses5001,0000.00
Totals 20157092456521,181  
Totals 20069298202,5433,043  
Assessed Range88.621,812
Unassessed Range11.42,807
Total Range10024,619

Summary Totals for Central African Republic

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts4542452450
Informed Guesses10015229
Other Guesses000500
Totals 2013464245397529
Totals 20061092,5581,126500

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population+1000+21.7416
Different Area-230±856-1,738-1,73883.820,640
New Guess00-1,586-1,5593.1756

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+1000+2
Different Area+429-1,528-6420
New Guess0-869-64+27

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+800+2
Different Area+347-1,474-6620
New Guess0-839-66+27

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts20,640020,640
Informed Guesses1,17201,172
Unassessed Range8721,9352,807

Central African Republic: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Bangassou Forest Reserve-OE2004500 500*Blake, 2005112,011 23.3E 5.2N
-OE2004500 500*Blake, 200512,011 23.3E 5.2N
+ Chinko Drainage BasinNPOD201210 2*Hickish & Aebischer, 2013117,600 24.2E 6.0N
NPOD201210 2*Hickish & Aebischer, 201317,600 24.2E 6.0N
+ Dzangha Ndoki National Park and Special ReserveDADCB2012631218Princée, 201313,861 16.2E 2.8N
DADCB20120Princée, 2013937 16.2E 2.8N
DADCB201236 28Princée, 2013587 16.2E 2.8N
DADCB2012183 138Princée, 2013497 16.2E 2.8N
DADCB201215 40Princée, 2013400 16.2E 2.8N
DADCB2012204 201Princée, 2013686 16.2E 2.8N
DADCB2012193 137Princée, 2013754 16.2E 2.8N
+ Northern LandscapeDAASB201068 113Bouché, 2011194,962 20.8E 8.2N
DAASB201068 113Bouché, 201194,962 20.8E 8.2N
+ Yobe-LidjombeNGOD2012152 27*Princée, 20132756 16.3E 2.7N
NGOD2012152 27*Princée, 2013756 16.3E 2.7N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

IUCNSpecies Survival Commission

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