Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

South Sudan
Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for South Sudan: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for South Sudan

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts690.1163
Aerial Sample Counts5,4625,64517.152,949
Informed Guesses135006.419,956
Totals 20155,6665,64400  
Totals 2006200280280  
Assessed Range23.673,068
Unassessed Range76.4236,743
Total Range100309,811

Summary Totals for South Sudan

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts69000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts1545,6455,6450
Informed Guesses135000
Totals 20133585,6455,6450
Totals 20062002800

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population+5,597±5,6450023.572,904
Different Technique+490-280-2800.1163

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+289+5,308+5,6450
Different Technique+490-2800

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+289+5,645+5,6450
Different Technique+490-2800

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1630163
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts52,949052,949
Informed Guesses19,956019,956
Unassessed Range116,8500236,743

South Sudan: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Badingilo EcosystemNPOD20090Grossmann et al., 2011216,897 31.9E 5.8N
NPOD20090Grossmann et al., 201116,897 31.9E 5.8N
+ Jonglei EcosystemNPASB20075,462 5,644Fay et al., 2007170,456 32.9E 7.0N
NPASB20075,462 5,644Fay et al., 200770,456 32.9E 7.0N
+ Lotilla EcosystemNPASD20070Fay et al., 2007218,969 34.7E 6.4N
NPASD20070Fay et al., 200718,969 34.7E 6.4N
+ Nimule National ParkDTATA200869Grossmann et al., 20083779 32.0E 3.7N
DTATA200869Grossmann et al., 2008779 32.0E 3.7N
+ Shambe AreaNPOD2010135Grossmann et al., 2011213,610 30.7E 7.0N
NPOD2010135Grossmann et al., 201113,610 30.7E 7.0N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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