Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Eastern Africa
Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Eastern Africa: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Eastern Africa

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts31,85917.8157,072
Aerial Sample Counts67,70311,43329.6260,356
Other Dung Counts151,1061,1060.11,192
Informed Guesses1744,0264,9843.328,780
Other Guesses6086081.19,673
Degraded Data6,3506,3503.732,926
Totals 201599,75111,43312,09013,048  
Totals 2006165,46927,9909,99511,539  
Assessed Range55.6489,999
Unassessed Range44.4390,649
Total Range100880,648

Summary Totals for Eastern Africa

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts31,859000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts56,27011,43311,4330
Other Dung Counts158912150
Informed Guesses17404,026958
Other Guesses185006,773
Totals 201388,50312,32415,6747,731
Totals 2006137,47928,63334,9233,953

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-56,194±26,4410026.0228,679
New Population+5,984±5,645+200+2009.281,042
Different Technique+1,839±350-1,529-1,8054.640,824
Different Area-13,720±13,515+313+31310.289,609
New Guess-2650-204-2041.412,191
Data Degraded-3,362±641+3,362+3,0522.421,024

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-38,180-18,014-17,4690
New Population+676+5,308+5,745+100
Different Technique+1,591-367-1,089-230
Different Area-8,197-5,010-4,722-200
New Guess-2650-476+472
Data Degraded-2,398-733-1,429+3,682

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-39,979-15,613-17,2980
New Population+708+4,601+5,689+99
Different Technique+1,666-318-1,078-227
Different Area-8,583-4,343-4,675-198
New Guess-2770-471+466
Data Degraded-2,511-635-1,415+3,638

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts153,7823,290157,072
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts260,193163260,356
Informed Guesses28,7364328,780
Other Dung Counts1,19111,192
Other Guesses31,1368,37439,510
Unassessed Range260,5218,549389,213

Elephant Estimates

Estimates from SurveysGuessesRange  
CountryEstimate/Number Seen± 95% CLFromToArea (km²)% Regional% AssessedIQI1PFS2
South Sudan5,6665,64500309,8113524.121

Elephant Estimates

CountryDefiniteProbablePossibleSpeculativeRange Area (km²)% of Regional Range% of Range AssessedIQI1PFS2
Eritrea960085,2751100 .933
Ethiopia472735157822,264373 .052
Kenya25,2925133,6025,498130,7251586 .632
Rwanda000371,079021 .003
Somalia000704,525168 .003
South Sudan3585,6455,6450309,8113524 .121
Tanzania53,8339,7919,9401,200389,9214469 .591
Uganda3,4522,1101,94234017,048271 .502
Totals88,50312,32415,6747,731880,64810056 .451

1IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).

2PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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