Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Tanzania: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Tanzania

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts6,08514.456,243
Aerial Sample Counts57,5399,79151.4200,554
Informed Guesses01491490.1300
Degraded Data1,2001,2002.810,950
Totals 201563,6249,7901,3491,349  
Totals 2006136,75327,9362,0132,313  
Assessed Range68.7268,046
Unassessed Range31.3121,875
Total Range100389,921

Summary Totals for Tanzania

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts6,085000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts47,7489,7919,7910
Informed Guesses001490
Other Guesses0001,200
Totals 201353,8339,7919,9401,200
Totals 2006108,81627,93729,350900

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-57,530±26,3350040.9159,578
New Population00+100+1000.0111
Different Technique+1,806±349-764-7646.525,431
Different Area-17,405±13,5150017.969,960
Data Degraded000-3001.35,071

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-38,509-19,021-18,3900
New Population00+1000
Different Technique+1,551+255-4150
Different Area-11,882-5,523-4,7710
Data Degraded00-600+300

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-43,353-14,210-14,8260
New Population00+810
Different Technique+1,746+191-3350
Different Area-13,376-4,127-3,8460
Data Degraded00-484+300

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts56,243056,243
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts200,5540200,554
Informed Guesses3000300
Other Guesses10,950010,950
Unassessed Range121,6250121,875

Tanzania: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Arusha National ParkNPOD2009100TAWIRI, 20094322 36.9E 3.2S
NPOD2009100TAWIRI, 2009322 36.9E 3.2S
+ Burigi-Biharamulo EcosystemRSASB20091,295 1,539TAWIRI, 200927,292 31.2E 2.4S
RSASB20091,295 1,539TAWIRI, 20097,292 31.2E 2.4S
+ Inyonga Game Conservation Area-OE2002600Angelides, pers. comm., 200326,050 32.8E 6.8S
-OE2002600Angelides, pers. comm., 20036,050 32.8E 6.8S
+ Katavi National ParkRSASB20093,235 2,438TAWIRI, 200923,960 31.8E 7.1S
RSASB20093,235 2,438TAWIRI, 20093,960 31.8E 7.1S
+ Katavi Rukwa (Outside)DAASB20091,0041,498TAWIRI, 200925,279 31.8E 7.1S
DAASB20090TAWIRI, 20091,035 31.8E 7.1S
DAASB200993 188TAWIRI, 20092,218 31.8E 7.1S
DAASB2009911 1,486TAWIRI, 20091,558 31.8E 7.1S
DAASB20090TAWIRI, 2009468 31.8E 7.1S
+ Lake Manyara National ParkRSATA200994TAWIRI, 200931,350 36.2E 4.5S
RSATA200994TAWIRI, 20091,350 36.2E 4.5S
+ Loliondo Area DAATA20090TAWIRI, 2009b25,356 35.0E 2.5S
DAATA20090TAWIRI, 2009b5,356 35.0E 2.5S
+ Makao Hunting Block-ATA20060TAWIRI, 200731,019 34.7E 3.5S
-ATA20060TAWIRI, 20071,019 34.7E 3.5S
+ Maswa Game ReserveRSATA2009127TAWIRI, 2009b22,902 35.0E 2.5S
RSATA2009127TAWIRI, 2009b2,902 35.0E 2.5S
+ Mkomazi Game ReserveRSATA2011256Ngene et al., 201123,195 38.3E 4.2S
RSATA2011256Ngene et al., 20113,195 38.3E 4.2S
+ Moyowosi-Kigosi Game ReserveRSASB200913,1435,239TAWIRI, 2009220,375 31.3E 4.2S
RSASB20096,520 4,226TAWIRI, 20098,601 31.3E 4.2S
RSASB20096,623 3,097TAWIRI, 200911,774 31.3E 4.2S
+ Natron LandscapeRSATA201363Kenana et al., 201327,047 36.7E 2.6S
RSATA201363Kenana et al., 20137,047 36.7E 2.6S
+ Ngorongoro South Conservation Area-ATA20060TAWIRI, 200734,275 35.1E 3.4S
-ATA20060TAWIRI, 20074,275 35.1E 3.4S
+ Piti East Hunting BlockDDOE2002200 100*Hurt, pers. comm., 200222,223 33.3E 7.1S
DDOE2002200 100*Hurt, pers. comm., 20022,223 33.3E 7.1S
+ Ruaha Rungwa EcosystemDAASB201320,090 6,433TAWIRI, 2013b150,889 34.4E 7.1S
DAASB201320,090 6,433TAWIRI, 2013b50,889 34.4E 7.1S
+ Rubondo Island National ParkDTASD200949TAWIRI, 20093400 31.9E 2.3S
DTASD200949TAWIRI, 2009400 31.9E 2.3S
+ Rukwa Game ReserveDAASB20092,124 1,435TAWIRI, 200921,035 31.8E 7.1S
DAASB20092,124 1,435TAWIRI, 20091,035 31.8E 7.1S
+ Rungwa South Hunting BlockDDOE2002400 200*D. Hurt, pers. comm., 200223,658 33.6E 7.6S
DDOE2002400 200*D. Hurt, pers. comm., 20023,658 33.6E 7.6S
+ Saadani Game ReserveDTASB2009255 349TAWIRI, 200942,502 38.7E 6.0S
DTASB2009255 349TAWIRI, 20092,502 38.7E 6.0S
+ Sagara Nyamagoma EcosystemRSASB20098431,141TAWIRI, 2009212,958 31.3E 4.2S
RSASB2009706 1,135TAWIRI, 20099,407 31.3E 4.2S
RSASB2009137 116TAWIRI, 20092,810 31.3E 4.2S
RSASB20090TAWIRI, 2009741 31.3E 4.2S
+ Selous Masasi CorridorRSASB20091,254 120TAWIRI, 2009212,747 38.1E 10.7S
RSASB20091,254 120TAWIRI, 200912,747 38.1E 10.7S
+ Selous Mikumi EcosystemRSASB201313,084 3,559TAWIRI, 2013a185,252 37.7E 8.5S
RSASB201313,084 3,559TAWIRI, 2013a85,252 37.7E 8.5S
+ Serengeti National ParkDTATA20092,941TAWIRI, 2009b222,366 35.0E 2.5S
DTATA20092,941TAWIRI, 2009b22,366 35.0E 2.5S
+ Tarangire National ParkRSATA20092,193TAWIRI, 200922,655 36.2E 4.5S
RSATA20092,193TAWIRI, 20092,655 36.2E 4.5S
+ Tarangire (Outside)DAATA2009274TAWIRI, 200928,738 36.2E 4.5S
DAATA2009124TAWIRI, 20091,951 36.2E 4.5S
DAATA2009150TAWIRI, 20096,787 36.2E 4.5S
+ Ugalla Game ReserveDAASB20091,031 480TAWIRI, 200926,298 31.3E 4.2S
DAASB20091,031 480TAWIRI, 20096,298 31.3E 4.2S
+ Ugalla OutsideRSASB2009181 290TAWIRI, 200925,901 31.3E 4.2S
RSASB2009181 290TAWIRI, 20095,901 31.3E 4.2S
+ West Kilimanjaro LandscapeDTATA2013137Kenana et al., 201323,013 36.7E 2.6S
DTATA2013137Kenana et al., 20133,013 36.7E 2.6S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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