| Data Category | Definite | Probable | Possible | Speculative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerial or Ground Total Counts | 3,167 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts | 105,594 | 27,937 | 27,937 | 0 |
| Informed Guesses | 55 | 0 | 1,413 | 300 |
| Other Guesses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 600 |
| Totals 2006 | 108,816 | 27,937 | 29,350 | 900 |
| Cause of Change | Definite | Probable | Possible | Speculative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repeat Survey | +18,138 | +7,140 | +7,279 | -513 |
| New Population | -258 | +925 | +943 | 0 |
| Different Technique | -1,119 | +692 | +640 | -872 |
| Different Area | -1,986 | +2,984 | +3,042 | 0 |
| New Guess | +814 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New Analysis | +773 | -1,035 | -1,055 | 0 |
| Totals | +16,363 | +10,706 | +10,849 | -1,385 |
| Data Category | Known Range | Possible Range | Total Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerial or Ground Total Counts | 29,290 | 208 | 29,498 |
| Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts | 205,092 | 11,476 | 216,567 |
| Informed Guesses | 6,151 | 0 | 6,151 |
| Other Guesses | 6,153 | 0 | 6,153 |
| Unassessed Range | 74,627 | 57,370 | 131,997 |
| Totals | 321,313 | 69,053 | 390,366 |
| Cause of | Survey Details2 | Number of Elephants | Area | Map Location | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Input Zone | Change1 | Type | Reliab. | Year | Estimate | 95% C.L. | Source | PFS3 | (km²) | Lon. | Lat. |
| Burigi-Biharamulo Ecosystem | - | AS3 | B | 2000 | 761 | 821 | S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b | 2 | 7,295 | 31.3E | 2.4S |
| Inyonga Game Conservation Area | - | OG3 | E | 2002 | 600 | G. Angelides, pers. comm., 2003 | 2 | 6,050 | 32.8E | 6.8S | |
| Katavi National Park | RS | AS2 | B | 2006 | 4,102 | 1,615 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 4,272 | 31.3E | 6.9S |
| Katavi-Rukwa (Outside) | RS | AS2 | B | 2006 | 915 | 606 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 3,739 | 31.3E | 6.9S |
| Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve | DT | IG3 | D | 2003 | 793 | Munishi & Maganga, 2003 | 3 | 499 | 37.2E | 3.0S | |
| Lake Manyara National Park | DT | AT3 | A | 2006 | 36 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 1,368 | 35.9E | 3.6S | |
| Longido Game Conservation Area | - | AT3 | A | 2002 | 70 | CIMU, 2003a | 3 | 6,909 | 36.5E | 2.8S | |
| Makao Hunting Block | DT | AT3 | A | 2006 | 0 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 1 | 1,019 | 34.7E | 3.5S | |
| Maswa Game Reserve | RS | AT3 | A | 2006 | 158 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 2,200 | 34.6E | 3.1S | |
| Mkomazi Game Reserve | RS | AT3 | A | 2005 | 41 | Omondi & Bitok, 2005 | 3 | 3,509 | 38.3E | 4.2S | |
| Moyowosi-Kigosi Game Reserve | DA | AS3 | B | 2006 | 9,541 | 3,657 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 2 | 20,262 | 31.3E | 4.2S |
| Ngorongoro Crater Conservation Area | NG | OG3 | E | 2006 | 0 | Renaud et al., 2006 | 1 | 274 | 35.6E | 3.2S | |
| Ngorongoro South Conservation Area | RS | AT3 | A | 2006 | 0 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 1 | 4,275 | 35.1E | 3.4S | |
| Piti East Hunting Block | - | IG3 | D | 2002 | 200 | 100* | D. Hurt, pers. comm., 2002 | 3 | 2,223 | 33.3E | 7.1S |
| Ruaha-Rungwa Ecosystem | RS | AS2 | B | 2006 | 35,409 | 11,507 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 2 | 45,800 | 34.4E | 6.8S |
| Rubondo Island National Park | - | IG3 | D | 2002 | 20 | M. Borner, pers. comm., 2003 | 3 | 400 | 31.8E | 2.3S | |
| Rukwa Game Reserve | RS | AS2 | B | 2006 | 1,200 | 902 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 3,666 | 31.9E | 7.2S |
| Rungwa South Hunting Block | - | IG3 | D | 2002 | 400 | 200* | D. Hurt, pers. comm., 2002 | 3 | 3,658 | 33.6E | 7.6S |
| Saadani Game Reserve | - | IG3 | D | 1998 | 55 | S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002b | 3 | 2,753 | 38.8E | 6.0S | |
| Sagara-Nyamagoma | DT | AS3 | B | 2006 | 4,635 | 3,028 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 2 | 12,726 | 31.2E | 5.2S |
| Selous Ecosystem | RS | AS3 | B | 2006 | 70,406 | 24,843 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 1 | 81,046 | 37.5E | 8.8S |
| Selous-Masasi Corridor | - | AS2 | B | 2000 | 1,076 | 107 | S. Mduma, pers. comm., 2002a | 2 | 14,082 | 37.9E | 10.8S |
| Selous-Niassa Corridor | NA | AS2 | B | 2000 | 0 | 0 | TAWIRI, 2000 | 1 | 9,096 | 36.6E | 11.1S |
| Serengeti National Park | RS | AT3 | A | 2006 | 1,472 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 2 | 14,763 | 34.8E | 2.3S | |
| Tarangire National Park | DT | AT3 | A | 2006 | 1,119 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 2,726 | 36.1E | 4.1S | |
| Tarangire (Outside) | DT | AT3 | A | 2006 | 183 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 6,708 | 36.3E | 4.2S | |
| Ugalla River Game Reserve | RS | AS3 | B | 2006 | 4,133 | 1,778 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 4,778 | 31.9E | 5.8S |
| Ugalla River (Outside) | NP | AS3 | B | 2006 | 1,353 | 837 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 3 | 5,498 | 32.6E | 6.1S |
| West Loliondo Game Controlled Area | RS | AT3 | A | 2006 | 88 | TAWIRI, 2007 | 4 | 422 | 35.3E | 2.1S | |
* Range of informed guess
1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change
2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.
3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.
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