| Estimates from Surveys | Guesses | % Known and Possible Range | Area (km2) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey category | Estimate | ± 95% CL | From | To | ||
| Aerial Total Counts | 10,548 | — | — | — | 14.2 | 55,562 |
| Aerial Sample Counts | 39,745 | 8,502 | — | — | 51.6 | 201,377 |
| Other Dung Counts | 0 | — | 137 | 137 | 0.0 | 188 |
| Informed Guesses | 140 | — | 200 | 200 | 1.9 | 7,255 |
| Degraded Data | — | — | 1,593 | 1,593 | 2.2 | 8,649 |
| Totals 2015 | 50,433 | 8,502 | 1,930 | 1,930 | ||
| Totals 2006 | 136,753 | 27,936 | 2,013 | 2,313 | ||
| Assessed Range | 70.0 | 273,031 | ||||
| Unassessed Range | 30.0 | 116,890 | ||||
| Total Range | 100 | 389,921 | ||||
| Data Category | Definite | Probable | Possible | Speculative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerial or Ground Total Counts | 10,548 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts | 31,243 | 8,502 | 8,502 | 0 |
| Other Dung Counts | 0 | 102 | 35 | 0 |
| Informed Guesses | 140 | 0 | 200 | 0 |
| Other Guesses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,593 |
| Totals 2015 | 41,931 | 8,604 | 8,737 | 1,593 |
| Totals 2006 | 108,816 | 27,937 | 29,350 | 900 |
| Estimates from Surveys | Guesses | Area | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cause of Change | Estimate | ± 95% CL | From | To | % Known and Possible | Total |
| Repeat Survey | -89,504 | ±28,943 | -400 | -600 | 55.9 | 218,050 |
| New Population | +1,572 | ±2,956 | +200 | +200 | 0.7 | 2,865 |
| Different Technique | -676 | ±821 | +82 | +82 | 0.9 | 3,539 |
| Different Area | +2,288 | ±2,373 | 0 | 0 | 10.2 | 39,928 |
| Data Degraded | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Totals | -86,320 | ±29,202 | -118 | -418 | 67.8 | 273,031 |
| Cause of Change | Definite | Probable | Possible | Speculative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repeat Survey | -59,228 | -30,276 | -26,992 | -200 |
| New Population | +70 | +1,502 | +3,156 | 0 |
| Different Technique | -83 | -491 | -806 | 0 |
| Different Area | +36 | +2,252 | +3,327 | 0 |
| Totals | -59,205 | -27,013 | -21,315 | -200 |
| Data Category | Known Range | Possible Range | Total Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerial or Ground Total Counts | 55,562 | 0 | 55,562 |
| Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts | 201,377 | 0 | 201,377 |
| Informed Guesses | 7,255 | 0 | 7,255 |
| Other Dung Counts | 188 | 0 | 188 |
| Other Guesses | 8,649 | 0 | 8,649 |
| Unassessed Range | 116,639 | 0 | 116,890 |
| Totals | 389,670 | 0 | 389,921 |
| Cause of | Survey Details2 | Number of Elephants | Area | Map Location | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Input Zone | Change1 | Type | Reliab. | Year | Estimate | 95% C.L. | Source | PFS3 | (km²) | Lon. | Lat. |
| + Arusha National Park | NP | O | D | 2014 | 200 | TAWIRI, 2015a | 4 | 322 | 36.8E | 3.2S | |
| + Burigi-Biharamulo Ecosystem | DT | O | D | 2014 | 110 | TAWIRI, 2015c | 2 | 4,713 | 30.9E | 2.1S | |
| + Inyonga Game Conservation Area | - | O | E | 2002 | 600 | Angelides, pers. comm., 2003 | 2 | 6,050 | 32.8E | 6.8S | |
| Katavi-Rukwa Ecosystem | |||||||||||
| + Katavi National Park | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 3,128 | 1,944 | TAWIRI, 2015a | 2 | 4,187 | 31.7E | 7.2S |
| + Katavi Rukwa (Outside) | DA | AS | B | 2014 | 2,488 | 1,859 | TAWIRI, 2015a | 2 | 11,673 | 31.7E | 7.2S |
| + Rukwa Game Reserve | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 122 | 131 | TAWIRI, 2015a | 2 | 4,092 | 31.7E | 7.2S |
| + Kilimanjaro Forest Reserve | - | O | E | 2003 | 793 | Munishi & Maganga, 2003 | 3 | 499 | 37.2E | 3.0S | |
| + Mkomazi Game Reserve | RS | AT | A | 2014 | 59 | Kyale et al. 2014 | 2 | 3,509 | 38.3E | 4.2S | |
| + Moyowosi-Kigosi Game Reserve | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 1,645 | 2,389 | TAWIRI, 2015d | 1 | 19,520 | 31.7E | 5.2S |
| + Natron Landscape and West Kilimanjaro | RS | AT | A | 2013 | 200 | Kenana et al., 2013 | 2 | 10,060 | 36.7E | 2.6S | |
| + Piti East Hunting Block | - | O | E | 2002 | 200 | 100* | Hurt, pers. comm., 2002 | 2 | 2,223 | 33.3E | 7.1S |
| Ruaha-Rungwa Ecosystem | |||||||||||
| + Itigi Extension | NP | AS | B | 2015 | 1,553 | 2,956 | TAWIRI, 2015f | 2 | 2,596 | 34.3E | 6.9S |
| + Ruaha-Rungwa Ecosystem | RS | AS | B | 2015 | 14,284 | 6,123 | TAWIRI, 2015f | 1 | 50,608 | 34.3E | 6.9S |
| + Rubondo Island National Park | DT | DC | C | 2014 | 102 | 35 | Mwambola et al., 2016 | 4 | 210 | 31.8E | 2.3S |
| + Saadani National Park | DT | O | D | 2014 | 30 | TAWIRI, 2015a | 4 | 2,502 | 38.8E | 6.0S | |
| + Sagara Nyamagoma Ecosystem | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 503 | 592 | TAWIRI, 2015d | 2 | 11,922 | 31.7E | 5.2S |
| Selous-Mikumi Ecosystem | |||||||||||
| + Masasi | DA | AS | B | 2014 | 16 | 31 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 2 | 5,726 | 37.3E | 8.9S |
| + Selous-Mikumi Ecosystem | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 14,040 | 3,252 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 1 | 83,907 | 37.3E | 8.9S |
| + Selous-Niassa | DA | AS | B | 2014 | 1,161 | 1,341 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 2 | 16,097 | 37.3E | 8.9S |
| Serengeti Ecosystem | |||||||||||
| + Loliondo Game Controlled Area | RS | AT | A | 2009 | 0 | TAWIRI, 2009b | 2 | 5,356 | 35.0E | 2.5S | |
| + Serengeti Ecosystem | RS | AT | A | 2014 | 6,087 | Mduma et al., 2014 | 2 | 23,660 | 34.8E | 2.6S | |
| Tarangire Ecosystem | |||||||||||
| + Lake Manyara | RS | AT | A | 2014 | 104 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 3 | 882 | 36.2E | 4.0S | |
| + Mto wa Mbu | NP | AT | A | 2014 | 19 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 4 | 191 | 36.2E | 4.0S | |
| + Tarangire National Park | RS | AT | A | 2014 | 3,282 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 2 | 2,637 | 36.2E | 4.0S | |
| + Tarangire (Outside) | DA | AT | A | 2014 | 797 | TAWIRI, 2015e | 2 | 13,657 | 36.2E | 4.0S | |
| + Ugalla East | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 146 | 278 | TAWIRI, 2015d | 2 | 6,391 | 31.7E | 5.2S |
| + Ugalla Game Reserve | RS | AS | B | 2014 | 659 | 549 | TAWIRI, 2015d | 2 | 4,857 | 31.7E | 5.2S |
* Range of informed guess
1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change
2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.
3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.
Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.
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