Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Uganda: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Uganda

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts50213.22,247
Aerial Sample Counts4,6341,73235.56,044
Other Dung Counts155885884.7794
Informed Guesses33004.6784
Degraded Data34034013.02,224
Totals 20155,1841,731927927  
Totals 20063,9441,6071,0071,017  
Assessed Range70.912,093
Unassessed Range29.14,956
Total Range10017,048

Summary Totals for Uganda

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts502000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts2,9021,7321,7320
Other Dung Counts153782100
Informed Guesses33000
Other Guesses000340
Totals 20133,4522,1101,942340
Totals 20062,3371,9851,937300

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey+1,145±2,3630043.17,346
New Population+620005.5944
New Guess+330-80-804.6784
Data Degraded000-102.2383

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+139+1,006+9210
New Population+62000
New Guess+330-800
Data Degraded00-30+40

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+661+125+60
New Population+295000
New Guess+157000
Data Degraded000+40

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts2,24702,247
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts5,8811636,044
Informed Guesses7840784
Other Dung Counts7940794
Other Guesses2,22402,224
Unassessed Range2,8262,1304,956

Uganda: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Bwindi National ParkDDOE200230A. McNeilage, pers. comm., 20032336 29.7E 1.0S
DDOE200230A. McNeilage, pers. comm., 2003336 29.7E 1.0S
+ Karenga Community Wildlife areaNPATA201262Wanyama, 20122956 33.8E 3.9N
NPATA201262Wanyama, 2012956 33.8E 3.9N
+ Katonga Game Reserve-OE200320 10*M. Polanski, pers. comm., 20042214 30.8E 0.2N
-OE200320 10*M. Polanski, pers. comm., 2004214 30.8E 0.2N
+ Kibale National Park-DCC2005393 210Wanyama, 20052795 30.4E 0.5N
-DCC2005393 210Wanyama, 2005795 30.4E 0.5N
+ Kidepo Valley National ParkRSATA2012440Wanyama, 201211,442 33.8E 3.9N
RSATA2012440Wanyama, 20121,442 33.8E 3.9N
+ Mgahinga Gorilla National ParkDDOE200310Gray, quest. reply, 2005267 29.6E 1.4S
DDOE200310Gray, quest. reply, 200567 29.6E 1.4S
+ Murchison Falls Protected AreaRSASB20121,6161,174Rwetsiba, 201215,207 31.8E 2.1N
RSASB20121,569 1,172Rwetsiba, 20121,894 31.8E 2.1N
RSASB201247 74Rwetsiba, 20123,313 31.8E 2.1N
+ Otze Forest-OE1998200F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 19982200 31.9E 3.7N
-OE1998200F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998200 31.9E 3.7N
+ Queen Elizabeth National ParkRSASB20123,0181,273Wanyama, 201212,024 30.0E 0.1S
RSASB20121,799 1,005Wanyama, 20121,571 30.0E 0.1S
RSASB20121,219 780Wanyama, 2012453 30.0E 0.1S
+ Rwenzori National Park-OE200320Keigwin, pers. comm., 20051929 30.0E 0.4N
-OE200320Keigwin, pers. comm., 2005929 30.0E 0.4N
+ Sango Bay-OE199830F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 19982305 31.7E 0.9S
-OE199830F. Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998305 31.7E 0.9S
+ Semliki National Park-OE199830Michelmore, pers. comm., 19982195 30.0E 0.8N
-OE199830Michelmore, pers. comm., 1998195 30.0E 0.8N
+ Toro-Semliki Wildlife ReserveNGOD201333Wanyama, 20132542 30.4E 1.0N
NGOD201333Wanyama, 2013542 30.4E 1.0N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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