Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Kenya: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Kenya

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts25,20375.398,419
Other Dung Counts05625620.3398
Informed Guesses03,5534,5111.41,845
Other Guesses30300.172
Degraded Data4,5994,5998.511,146
Totals 201525,20308,7449,702  
Totals 200623,9946415,7586,746  
Assessed Range85.6111,880
Unassessed Range14.418,844
Total Range100130,725

Summary Totals for Kenya

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts25,203000
Other Dung Counts0513490
Informed Guesses003,553958
Other Guesses89004,540
Totals 201325,2925133,6025,498
Totals 200623,3539064,6922,431

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey+19100047.261,755
New Population+3250002.32,994
Different Technique+2740-485-51511.014,420
Different Area+3,6850+313+31315.019,650
Data Degraded-3,266±641+3,266+3,2667.710,052

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+191000
New Population+325000
Different Technique+274-649-421-30
Different Area+3,685+513+49-200
Data Degraded-2,494-733-799+3,297

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+187000
New Population+318000
Different Technique+268-294-392-30
Different Area+3,607+232+46-200
Data Degraded-2,441-332-744+3,297

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts95,1293,29098,419
Informed Guesses1,802431,845
Other Dung Counts3971398
Other Guesses11,218011,218
Unassessed Range15,3913,45318,844

Kenya: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Aberdare National Park-OD20051,840 461*Bitok & Kones, 20052767 36.7E 0.4S
-OD20051,840 461*Bitok & Kones, 2005767 36.7E 0.4S
+ Aberdare Outside-OD20051,700 472*Bitok & Kones, 20052663 36.7E 0.6S
-OD20051,700 472*Bitok & Kones, 2005663 36.7E 0.6S
+ Amboseli EcosystemDTATA20131,281Kenana et al., 201329,214 36.9E 2.4S
DTATA20131,281Kenana et al., 20139,214 36.9E 2.4S
+ Arabuko Sokoke Forest ReserveDDDCE2002184 43Litoroh, 2002b3415 39.9E 3.3S
DDDCE2002184 43Litoroh, 2002b415 39.9E 3.3S
+ Bisanadi National ReserveRSATA200730Mwangi et al., 20073593 37.6E 0.1N
RSATA200730Mwangi et al., 2007593 37.6E 0.1N
+ Boni & Dodori National ReservesDDDCE200050 46M. Litoroh, pers. comm., 200321,643 41.2E 1.8S
DDDCE200050 46M. Litoroh, pers. comm., 20031,643 41.2E 1.8S
+ Chyulu National ParkNPATA2011135Ngene et al., 201121,881 38.5E 3.0S
NPATA2011135Ngene et al., 20111,881 38.5E 3.0S
+ Kipipiri Forest Reserve-OD200513 25*Bitok & Kones, 2005343 36.6E 0.4S
-OD200513 25*Bitok & Kones, 200543 36.6E 0.4S
+ Kora National ParkRSATA200731Mwangi et al., 200721,618 37.6E 0.1N
RSATA200731Mwangi et al., 20071,618 37.6E 0.1N
+ Laikipia-Samburu EcosystemRSATA20126,365Ngene et al., 2013135,247 37.3E 1.0N
RSATA20126,365Ngene et al., 201335,247 37.3E 1.0N
+ Lamu DistrictDDATE200082M. Litoroh, pers. comm., 200315,964 40.6E 2.1S
DDATE200082M. Litoroh, pers. comm., 20035,964 40.6E 2.1S
+ Loroki ForestDDDCE1997210 354Bitok, et al., 19972596 36.8E 1.1N
DDDCE1997210 354Bitok, et al., 1997596 36.8E 1.1N
+ Maasai Mara National ReserveRSATA20101,769Kiambi, 201221,509 35.1E 1.5S
RSATA2010919Kiambi, 2012474 35.1E 1.5S
RSATA2010478Kiambi, 2012667 35.1E 1.5S
RSATA2010372Kiambi, 2012368 35.1E 1.5S
+ Magadi EcosystemDTATA2013449Kenana et al., 201326,348 36.9E 2.4S
DTATA2013449Kenana et al., 20136,348 36.9E 2.4S
+ MarsabitDTATA201286Ngene et al., 201327,634 37.9E 2.3N
DTATA201286Ngene et al., 20137,634 37.9E 2.3N
+ Masai Mara OutsideDAATA20101,300Kiambi, 201222,685 35.1E 1.5S
DAATA2010223Kiambi, 2012548 35.1E 1.5S
DAATA20101,077Kiambi, 20122,137 35.1E 1.5S
+ Mau Forest Complex-DCE19951,003Njumbi, et al., 199521,267 35.5E 0.5S
-DCE19951,003Njumbi, et al., 19951,267 35.5E 0.5S
+ Meru National ParkRSATA2007268Mwangi et al., 20072867 37.6E 0.1N
RSATA2007268Mwangi et al., 2007867 37.6E 0.1N
+ Meru North Grazing Area DAATA2007391Mwangi et al., 200724,136 37.6E 0.1N
DAATA2007391Mwangi et al., 20074,136 37.6E 0.1N
+ Mt Elgon National Park & National ReserveDDOE2002139Bitok, 200221,083 34.6E 1.0N
DDOE2002139Bitok, 20021,083 34.6E 1.0N
+ Mt Kenya National Park & National ReserveDDDCE20012,911 640Vanleeuwe, 200422,007 37.4E 0.2S
DDDCE20012,911 640Vanleeuwe, 20042,007 37.4E 0.2S
+ Mwea National ReserveDTATA201290Ngene et al., 2012442 37.6E 0.8S
DTATA201290Ngene et al., 201242 37.6E 0.8S
+ Mwingi National ReserveRSATA20070Mwangi et al., 20073682 37.6E 0.1N
RSATA20070Mwangi et al., 2007682 37.6E 0.1N
+ Nasolot, S. Turkana, Rimoi & Kamnarok National ReservesRSATA2010362Edebe et al., 201024,617 35.5E 1.9N
RSATA201011Edebe et al., 2010635 35.5E 1.9N
RSATA2010199Edebe et al., 20101,344 35.5E 1.9N
RSATA20100Edebe et al., 2010295 35.5E 1.9N
RSATA20100Edebe et al., 2010784 35.5E 1.9N
RSATA201016Edebe et al., 2010583 35.5E 1.9N
RSATA2010136Edebe et al., 2010976 35.5E 1.9N
+ North Narok LandscapeNPATA2011163Mijele et al., 20112310 35.3E 1.3S
NPATA2011163Mijele et al., 2011310 35.3E 1.3S
+ Rahole National ReserveNPATA200727Mwangi et al., 200721,477 37.6E 0.1N
NPATA200727Mwangi et al., 20071,477 37.6E 0.1N
+ Shimba Hills EcosystemDTATA2012274Ngene & Mukeka, 20123274 39.4E 4.3S
DTATA2012159Ngene & Mukeka, 201237 39.4E 4.3S
DTATA2012115Ngene & Mukeka, 2012237 39.4E 4.3S
+ South Kitui National ReserveRSATA20110Ngene et al., 201121,932 38.5E 3.0S
RSATA20110Ngene et al., 20111,932 38.5E 3.0S
+ Tana River DeltaDDOE200220W.I. Knocker, pers. comm., 20033145 40.4E 2.5S
DDOE200220W.I. Knocker, pers. comm., 2003145 40.4E 2.5S
+ Tana River Primate National Reserve-OE200530W.I. Knocker, pers. comm., 2005372 40.1E 1.8S
-OE200530W.I. Knocker, pers. comm., 200572 40.1E 1.8S
+ TransmaraDADCC2007513 49Sitati & Bitok, 200722,900 35.2E 1.2S
DADCC2007513 49Sitati & Bitok, 20072,900 35.2E 1.2S
+ Tsavo National ParkRSATA20118,356Ngene et al., 2011120,448 38.5E 3.0S
RSATA20112,094Ngene et al., 20119,250 38.5E 3.0S
RSATA20114,120Ngene et al., 20114,234 38.5E 3.0S
RSATA20112,142Ngene et al., 20116,964 38.5E 3.0S
+ Tsavo (Outside)DAATA20113,826Ngene et al., 2011120,827 38.5E 3.0S
DAATA2011398Ngene et al., 20116,439 38.5E 3.0S
DAATA2011509Ngene et al., 20111,937 38.5E 3.0S
DAATA20110Ngene et al., 20111,133 38.5E 3.0S
DAATA20112,751Ngene et al., 20116,877 38.5E 3.0S
DAATA2011168Ngene et al., 20114,441 38.5E 3.0S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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