Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Ethiopia: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Ethiopia

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Sample Counts68273.6810
Informed Guesses632432426.55,894
Other Guesses57857843.19,601
Totals 20157427902902  
Totals 200662809261,126  
Assessed Range73.216,305
Unassessed Range26.85,959
Total Range10022,264

Summary Totals for Ethiopia

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts4127270
Informed Guesses603240
Other Guesses000578
Totals 20134727351578
Totals 20066280920206

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population00+100+10018.44,088
Different Technique-256±270-2003.6810
New Guess-2980-124-12451.211,407

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population000+100
Different Technique-283+27+27-200
New Guess-2980-396+472

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population000+100
Different Technique-283+27+42-200
New Guess-2980-611+472

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts8100810
Informed Guesses5,89405,894
Other Guesses1,2278,3749,601
Unassessed Range2,9922,9665,959

Ethiopia: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Alatash National ParkNPOE200950Demeke, pers. comm., 201012,600 36.0E 12.4N
NPOE200950Demeke, pers. comm., 20102,600 36.0E 12.4N
+ Babille Elephant SanctuaryNGOD2009324Demeke, pers. comm., 201016,982 42.4E 8.7N
NGOD2009324Demeke, pers. comm., 20106,982 42.4E 8.7N
+ Boran Controlled Hunting AreaNPOE200950Demeke, pers. comm., 201014,212 38.9E 4.2N
NPOE200950Demeke, pers. comm., 20104,212 38.9E 4.2N
+ Chebera-Churchura National ParkNGOE200960Demeke, 201013,160 36.8E 6.9N
NGOE200960Demeke, 20103,160 36.8E 6.9N
+ Dabus Valley Controlled Hunting AreaNGOE2009100Demeke, pers. comm., 201012,127 35.1E 10.5N
NGOE2009100Demeke, pers. comm., 20102,127 35.1E 10.5N
+ Gambella National ParkNGOD20096Trans Frontier Conservation Initiative Task Force , 2010120,175 34.0E 8.0N
NGOD20096Trans Frontier Conservation Initiative Task Force , 201020,175 34.0E 8.0N
+ Kafta-Sheraro National ParkNGOE2013318Mamo et al., 201311,130 37.2E 14.2N
NGOE2013318Mamo et al., 20131,130 37.2E 14.2N
+ Mago & Omo National ParkDTASB200768 27Renaud, 200717,853 35.8E 5.8N
DTASB200768 27Renaud, 20077,853 35.8E 5.8N
+ Mizan Teferi Controlled Hunting AreaNGOE20060Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Authority, 200813,160 35.7E 7.4N
NGOE20060Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Authority, 20083,160 35.7E 7.4N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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