Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Ethiopia: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Ethiopia

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts5505.51,231
Informed Guesses4671,1601,16078.017,367
Totals 20151,01701,1601,160  
Totals 200631001,4531,453  
Assessed Range83.518,598
Unassessed Range16.53,666
Total Range10022,264

Summary Totals for Ethiopia

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts550000
Informed Guesses46701,1600
Totals 20151,01701,1600
Totals 200631001,4476

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population00+70+7018.44,095
Different Technique+6060-200-20013.63,028
Different Area+4110-447-4478.11,806
New Guess-3100+284+28443.49,668

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population00+700
Different Technique+6060-2000
Different Area+4110-4470
New Guess-3100+290-6

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population00+700
Different Technique+6060-2000
Different Area+4110-4470
New Guess-3100+290-6

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1,23101,231
Informed Guesses8,9118,45617,367
Unassessed Range7822,8853,666

Ethiopia: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Alitash National ParkNPOD201520Ali, pers. comm., 201612,600 35.8E 12.3N
NPOD201520Ali, pers. comm., 20162,600 35.8E 12.3N
+ Babille Elephant SanctuaryNGOD2015250Ali, pers. comm., 201616,982 42.5E 8.6N
NGOD2015250Ali, pers. comm., 20166,982 42.5E 8.6N
+ Chebera Churchura National ParkNGOD2015420Ali, pers. comm., 201613,160 36.7E 6.9N
NGOD2015420Ali, pers. comm., 20163,160 36.7E 6.9N
+ Dabus Valley Controlled Hunting AreaNGOD201520Ali, pers. comm., 201612,127 35.1E 10.6N
NGOD201520Ali, pers. comm., 20162,127 35.1E 10.6N
+ GambellaDTASD2015606Mònico & Schapira, 2015119,366 34.1E 7.6N
DTATA20150Mònico & Schapira, 2015831 33.7E 7.9N
DTATA2015550Mònico & Schapira, 2015865 33.7E 7.9N
DTOD201556Mònico & Schapira, 201510,290 33.7E 8.0N
DTATA20150Mònico & Schapira, 20151,301 33.7E 7.9N
DTASD20150Mònico & Schapira, 20156,079 34.1E 7.6N
+ Geralle National ParkNPOD201550Ali, pers. comm., 201614,212 40.1E 4.5N
NPOD201550Ali, pers. comm., 20164,212 40.1E 4.5N
+ Kafta-Sheraro National ParkNGOD2015300Ali, pers. comm., 201611,130 37.2E 14.2N
NGOD2015300Ali, pers. comm., 20161,130 37.2E 14.2N
+ Mago National ParkDAOD201580Ali, pers. comm., 2016110,000 36.2E 5.6N
DAOD201580Ali, pers. comm., 201610,000 36.2E 5.6N
+ Mizan Teferi Controlled Hunting AreaNGOD201520Ali, pers. comm., 201613,160 35.7E 7.4N
NGOD201520Ali, pers. comm., 20163,160 35.7E 7.4N
+ Omo National ParkDAOD2014411Chase et al., 201413,146 35.7E 5.7N
DAOD2014411Chase et al., 20143,146 35.7E 5.7N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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