Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

South Sudan
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for South Sudan: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for South Sudan

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Sample Counts6,8505,91135.3109,417
Reliable Dung Counts1180.0132
Informed Guesses135006.419,813
Totals 20157,1035,91100  
Totals 2006200280280  
Assessed Range41.8129,362
Unassessed Range58.2180,449
Total Range100309,811

Summary Totals for South Sudan

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts1,0575,9115,9110
Informed Guesses135000
Totals 20151,1925,9115,9110
Totals 20062002800

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
New Population+6,985±5,9110041.7129,230
Different Technique+980-280-2800.0132

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+329+6,656+7,9070
Different Technique+27+71-2800

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
New Population+1,083+5,849+5,8380
Different Technique+89+62-2070

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts95,13014,419109,549
Informed Guesses19,813019,813
Unassessed Range74,975105,474180,449

South Sudan: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Badingilo-Boma CorridorNPASB20090Grossmann et al., 2011210,468 33.2E 5.9N
NPASB20090Grossmann et al., 201110,468 33.2E 5.9N
+ Badingilo EcosystemNPOD20090Grossmann et al., 2011216,897 31.9E 5.8N
NPOD20090Grossmann et al., 201116,897 31.9E 5.8N
+ Boma National ParkNPASB2007606 836Fay et al., 2007130,801 34.0E 6.7N
NPASB2007606 836Fay et al., 200730,801 34.0E 6.7N
+ Jonglei EcosystemNPASB20075,462 5,644Fay et al., 2007170,456 32.9E 7.0N
NPASB20075,462 5,644Fay et al., 200770,456 32.9E 7.0N
+ Kidepo Game ReserveNPASB20080Grossman et al., 20082530 33.4E 4.0N
NPASB20080Grossman et al., 2008530 33.4E 4.0N
+ Nimule National ParkDTDCB2012118 179Tomor, 20155400 32.0E 3.7N
DTDCB2012118 179Tomor, 2015400 32.0E 3.7N
+ Shambe AreaNPOD2010135Grossmann et al., 2011213,610 30.7E 7.0N
NPOD2010135Grossmann et al., 201113,610 30.7E 7.0N
+ Southern National ParkNPASB2007782 1,425Fay et al., 2007126,711 28.7E 6.3N
NPASB2007782 1,425Fay et al., 200726,711 28.7E 6.3N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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