Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Botswana: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Botswana

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts8900.61,389
Aerial Sample Counts130,73612,50855.9127,467
Totals 2015131,62612,50800  
Totals 2006154,65820,82800  
Assessed Range56.5128,856
Unassessed Range43.599,218
Total Range100228,073

Summary Totals for Botswana

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts890000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts118,22812,50812,5080
Totals 2015119,11812,50812,5080
Totals 2006133,82920,82920,8290

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-23,681±24,2830041.895,331
New Population+797±4370014.132,136
Different Technique-148±685000.61,389

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-47,371+23,690+33,4150
New Population+164+633+6740
Different Technique+537-685-6850

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-14,932-8,339-8,3240
New Population+52-223-1680
Different Technique+169+241+1710

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1,38901,389
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts87,99039,477127,467
Unassessed Range14,84484,37499,218

Botswana: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Ghanzi DistrictNPASB2015797437DWNP, 2016151,269 22.5E 23.7S
NPASB2015386 298DWNP, 201616,391 22.5E 23.7S
NPASB2015138 62DWNP, 201617,196 22.5E 23.7S
NPASB2015273 314DWNP, 201617,682 22.5E 23.7S
+ Northern BotswanaRSASB2014129,93912,501Chase et al., 2015198,387 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20144,211 1,165Chase et al., 20151,082 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,777 1,552Chase et al., 20151,296 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014283 289Chase et al., 2015470 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014990 1,341Chase et al., 20151,453 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,001 1,720Chase et al., 20153,668 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,220 1,072Chase et al., 20154,092 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20147,912 2,076Chase et al., 20151,410 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014743 488Chase et al., 20151,201 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20142,238 1,395Chase et al., 20152,084 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,604 5,371Chase et al., 20157,294 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20141,198 1,790Chase et al., 20153,725 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB201462Chase et al., 2015422 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014180Chase et al., 2015195 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014550 543Chase et al., 20152,975 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014801 322Chase et al., 20152,191 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB201410,027 1,327Chase et al., 20154,911 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20149,005 2,123Chase et al., 20155,563 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,319 2,037Chase et al., 2015972 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014455 516Chase et al., 20152,555 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20144,402 1,651Chase et al., 20151,699 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014953 1,701Chase et al., 20151,138 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20142,997 808Chase et al., 20151,196 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,893 803Chase et al., 20151,361 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20141,924 673Chase et al., 20151,912 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20144,750 1,288Chase et al., 20151,889 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20142,194 1,102Chase et al., 2015573 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014343 247Chase et al., 2015430 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014121 162Chase et al., 2015536 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014624 453Chase et al., 2015601 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20144,406 1,560Chase et al., 20151,738 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20142,480 1,133Chase et al., 20151,362 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,641 806Chase et al., 20151,854 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014707 518Chase et al., 2015279 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,410 2,100Chase et al., 20151,213 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014514 455Chase et al., 2015916 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014941 925Chase et al., 2015533 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014615 501Chase et al., 20152,436 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,436 8,193Chase et al., 20151,930 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20144,933 4,991Chase et al., 20156,838 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20145,547 1,552Chase et al., 20151,181 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20141,570 1,317Chase et al., 2015652 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20140Chase et al., 20152,793 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20141,667 1,893Chase et al., 20155,564 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB201411,744 3,846Chase et al., 20153,044 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20143,098 2,535Chase et al., 20151,818 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014891 792Chase et al., 20152,508 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB201454Chase et al., 2015284 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB2014390 831Chase et al., 201580 24.0E 19.2S
RSASB20142,118 1,468Chase et al., 20152,470 24.0E 19.2S
+ Tuli Game ReserveDTATA2014890Selier & Page, 201521,456 28.9E 22.3S
DTATA2014502Selier & Page, 2015736 28.9E 22.3S
DTATA2014388Selier & Page, 2015720 28.9E 22.3S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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