Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Namibia: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Namibia

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Sample Counts16,5552,87143.070,532
Informed Guesses020206.410,467
Totals 201516,5552,8712020  
Totals 200615,8073,2762020  
Assessed Range49.480,999
Unassessed Range50.683,070
Total Range100164,069

Summary Totals for Namibia

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts13,6842,8712,8710
Informed Guesses00200
Totals 201313,6842,8712,8910
Totals 200612,5313,2763,2960

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey+1,402±3,5450045.674,804
Different Area-654±2,526003.65,831

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-1,575+2,977+3,7810
Different Area+502-1,156-1,1130

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey+1,691-662-5740
Different Area-539+257+1690

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts67,9252,60770,532
Informed Guesses10,10935810,467
Unassessed Range34,43748,63283,070

Namibia: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Etosha National ParkRSASB20113,378 1,756MET, 2012119,356 15.6E 19.1S
RSASB20113,378 1,756MET, 201219,356 15.6E 19.1S
+ Khaudom-KavangoDAASB20133,1331,068Craig & Gibson, 2013b27,147 20.6E 18.9S
DAASB20133,089 1,091Craig & Gibson, 2013b4,900 20.6E 18.9S
DAASB20130Craig & Gibson, 2013b757 20.6E 18.9S
DAASB201344 84Craig & Gibson, 2013b1,490 20.6E 18.9S
+ KuneneRSASB2011314154MET, 2012140,887 14.1E 20.0S
RSASD20110MET, 201210,838 15.6E 19.1S
RSASB2011314 154MET, 201230,049 14.1E 20.0S
+ Mangetti Game Reserve-OD200520MET, 20053762 19.1E 18.7S
-OD200520MET, 2005762 19.1E 18.7S
+ Na-Jaqna Conservancy -ASB200461 115Kolberg, 200419,143 19.6E 19.6S
-ASB200461 115Kolberg, 20049,143 19.6E 19.6S
+ Nyae Nyae ConservancyRSASB2013505 390Craig & Gibson, 2013b27,794 20.6E 18.9S
RSASB2013505 390Craig & Gibson, 2013b7,794 20.6E 18.9S
+ Zambezi RegionRSASB20139,1641,957Craig & Gibson, 2013a119,148 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB20133,299 1,056Craig & Gibson, 2013a2,323 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2013318 399Craig & Gibson, 2013a3,789 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2013439 594Craig & Gibson, 2013a4,627 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2013646 1,152Craig & Gibson, 2013a3,035 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB20132,073 637Craig & Gibson, 2013a1,353 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2013165 239Craig & Gibson, 2013a381 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB2013301 208Craig & Gibson, 2013a2,506 23.5E 17.9S
RSASB20131,923 638Craig & Gibson, 2013a1,134 23.5E 17.9S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

IUCNSpecies Survival Commission

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