Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Central Africa
2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Central Africa: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Central Africa

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts2,7071.813,838
Aerial Sample Counts1923144.837,793
Reliable Dung Counts14,8773,19311.791,312
Other Dung Counts135,71462,78611.086,378
Informed Guesses1,6886,87613,8579.574,143
Other Guesses3,3054,0355.442,291
Degraded Data6,9106,9104.737,086
Modeled Extrapolation32,37832,37820.9163,629
Totals 201519,4653,20885,183119,966  
Totals 200614,6224,259112,622119,163  
Assessed Range69.8546,471
Unassessed Range30.2236,615
Total Range100783,085

Summary Totals for Central Africa

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts2,707000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts11,8603,2093,2090
Other Dung Counts140,6716,0500
Informed Guesses1,688039,2786,937
Other Guesses510010,215
Totals 201516,30743,88048,53717,152
Totals 200610,36248,93643,10133,400

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-1,296±2,395-8,130-2,1854.636,337
New Population+6,349±1,182+12,871+14,11315.8123,521
Different Technique+2,342±4,250-15,157-16,6326.853,577
Different Area+558±1,077-15,412-13,8428.264,559
New Guess+1,5440+2,942+8,08428.5223,348
Population Lost00-620-7200.1837
Data Degraded000-5000.00
No Change00005.744,292

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-2,772-2,624+479-177
New Population+3,290+14,222+10,086+1,338
Different Technique+3,500-2,528-6,423-9,482
Different Area+534-13,433-4,355-640
New Guess+1,544+722+19,981-12,739
Population Lost00-500-220

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-4,977-7,248+124-131
New Population+5,907+39,286+2,605+993
Different Technique+6,283-6,982-1,659-7,041
Different Area+959-37,107-1,125-475
New Guess+2,772+1,994+5,161-9,459
Population Lost00-129-163

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts13,7815813,838
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts101,39027,715129,105
Informed Guesses82,322155,451237,772
Other Dung Counts82,4303,94886,378
Other Guesses67,69711,68079,377
Unassessed Range105,833130,781236,615

Elephant Estimates

Estimates from SurveysGuessesRange  
CountryEstimate/Number Seen± 95% CLFromToArea (km²)% Regional% AssessedIQI1PFS2
Central African Republic70224569982624,619389.352
Democratic Republic of Congo1,794537,13810,669223,2482951.071
Equatorial Guinea8846760019,7013100.572

Elephant Estimates

CountryDefiniteProbablePossibleSpeculativeRange Area (km²)% of Regional Range% of Range AssessedIQI1PFS2
Cameroon5,8862,4171,4885589,7181168 .582
Central African Republic45724544462724,619389 .352
Chad794013322061,490846 .322
Congo4,83520,3065,151920150,9371957 .461
Democratic Republic of Congo1,8142,2241,4734,989223,2482951 .201
Equatorial Guinea208676676019,7013100 .572
Gabon4,75515,59144,84110,313213,37327101 .271
Totals21,30538,88148,07817,124783,08510070 .331

1IQI: Information Quality Index: This index quantifies overall data quality at the regional level based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of assessed elephant range (i.e. range for which estimates are available). The IQI ranges from zero (no reliable information) to one (perfect information).

2PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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