Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

2016 African Elephant Status Report

All Years for Chad: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Chad

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts74313.28,092
Informed Guesses5113321324.414,984
Other Guesses1201208.95,485
Totals 20157940253333  
Totals 20063,88502,0002,550  
Assessed Range46.428,561
Unassessed Range53.632,929
Total Range10061,490

Summary Totals for Chad

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts743000
Informed Guesses51013380
Other Guesses000120
Totals 20157940133200
Totals 20063,88502,000550

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-3,4420005.13,153
New Population+1650+70+11819.612,033
New Guess+1860-1,297-1,71520.412,539
Population Lost00-500-6001.4837

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-3,442000
New Population+16500+118
New Guess+1860-1,367-348
Population Lost00-500-100

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-3,442000
New Population+16500+118
New Guess+1860-1,367-348
Population Lost00-500-100

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts8,09208,092
Informed Guesses14,984014,984
Other Guesses4,7117745,485
Unassessed Range25,5917,33732,929

Chad: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Baké - Yamodo - Goré AreaNPOE201550Antonínová et al., 201513,500 16.0E 7.7N
NPOE201550Antonínová et al., 20153,500 16.0E 7.7N
+ Binder Léré Wildlife Reserve EcosystemNPATA2014132Antonínová et al., 2014b21,840 14.5E 9.7N
NPATA20140Antonínová et al., 2014b33 14.5E 9.7N
NPATA2014132Antonínová et al., 2014b1,277 14.5E 9.7N
NPATA20140Antonínová et al., 2014b166 14.5E 9.7N
NPATA20140Antonínová et al., 2014b364 14.5E 9.7N
+ Birket Fatime - Eref AreaNPOD20137 18*Antonínová et al., 201521,884 19.0E 12.6N
NPOD20137 18*Antonínová et al., 20151,884 19.0E 12.6N
+ Chari Baguirmi-Mayo Kebbi EstNGATA2014168Antonínová et al., 2014c23,312 16.2E 10.7N
NGATA2014167Antonínová et al., 2014c1,261 16.2E 10.7N
NGATA20141Antonínová et al., 2014c2,051 16.2E 10.7N
+ Dembo - Djéké Djéké - Sido AreaNGOE201520Antonínová et al., 201512,409 18.0E 8.2N
NGOE201520Antonínová et al., 20152,409 18.0E 8.2N
+ Gagal - Yapala - Beinamar AreaNGOD201518 32*Antonínová et al., 201524,640 15.4E 8.9N
NGOD201518 32*Antonínová et al., 20154,640 15.4E 8.9N
+ Heban-Mourraye areaNPOD20136Antonínová et al., 2014a24,591 20.6E 11.8N
NPOD20136Antonínová et al., 2014a4,591 20.6E 11.8N
+ Lake Chad - Baga Sola AreaNPOD20156 14*Antonínová et al., 20152963 14.2E 13.6N
NPOD20156 14*Antonínová et al., 2015963 14.2E 13.6N
+ Lake Chad - Doum Doum AreaNGOD201560Antonínová et al., 201512,363 15.2E 13.0N
NGOD201560Antonínová et al., 20152,363 15.2E 13.0N
+ Lake Fitri AreaNGOD201573Antonínová et al., 201514,167 17.7E 12.3N
NGOD201573Antonínová et al., 20154,167 17.7E 12.3N
+ LarmanayeNGOE201550Antonínová et al., 201512,180 15.5E 8.1N
NGOE201550Antonínová et al., 20152,180 15.5E 8.1N
+ Mbaibokoum-Mbitoye-Bekan AreaNPOD201514 16*Antonínová et al., 201513,872 16.0E 7.7N
NPOD201514 16*Antonínová et al., 20153,872 16.0E 7.7N
+ Siniaka-Minia Faunal ReservePLOD20150Antonínová et al., 201514,740 18.2E 10.4N
PLOD20150Antonínová et al., 20154,740 18.2E 10.4N
+ Zakouma National ParkRSATA2014443Antonínová et al., 2014a23,201 19.7E 10.8N
RSATA20140Antonínová et al., 2014a914 19.7E 10.8N
RSATA20141Antonínová et al., 2014a527 19.7E 10.8N
RSATA2014434Antonínová et al., 2014a694 19.7E 10.8N
RSATA20144Antonínová et al., 2014a638 19.7E 10.8N
RSATA20144Antonínová et al., 2014a428 19.7E 10.8N

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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