Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Zambia: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Zambia

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts320.081
Aerial Sample Counts12,3852,50162.3106,216
Informed Guesses614714711.419,358
Degraded Data5425420.91,522
Totals 201512,4232,501689689  
Totals 200622,4615,899870870  
Assessed Range74.6127,178
Unassessed Range25.443,288
Total Range100170,466

Summary Totals for Zambia

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts32000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts9,8732,5012,5010
Informed Guesses601470
Other Guesses000542
Totals 20139,9112,5012,648542
Totals 200616,5625,9485,908813

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-8,965±6,290-49-4946.879,749
New Population+9±16+44+4412.421,079
Different Technique-390±1,145-264-2649.315,851
Different Area-692±433+96+965.38,977

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-3,070-5,906-6,2120
New Population+1+8+600
Different Technique-583+117+191-215
Different Area-76-616-529-7

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-5,477-3,182-3,1200
New Population+2+4+300
Different Technique-1,040+63+96-262
Different Area-136-332-266-9

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts81081
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts80,16526,051106,216
Informed Guesses3,57715,78219,358
Other Guesses1,1303931,522
Unassessed Range7,72035,56843,288

Zambia: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Bangweulu SystemDTASB2008136 137Simukonda, 2009115,115 29.8E 14.2S
DTASB2008136 137Simukonda, 200915,115 29.8E 14.2S
+ Isangano National Park-GTE19933Tembo, quest. reply, 19932840 30.6E 11.2S
-GTE19933Tembo, quest. reply, 1993840 30.6E 11.2S
+ Kafue National ParkRSASB20112,280 966Frederick, 2011122,424 25.8E 14.9S
RSASB20112,280 966Frederick, 201122,424 25.8E 14.9S
+ Kasonso-Busanga Game Management AreasDAASB201123 43Frederick, 201126,874 25.8E 14.9S
DAASB201123 43Frederick, 20116,874 25.8E 14.9S
+ Katokota Game Ranch-ATE199119Tembo, pers. comm., 1993415 28.0E 16.8S
-ATE199119Tembo, pers. comm., 199315 28.0E 16.8S
+ Lower Zambezi Ecosystem DTASB20081,298 860Simukonda, 200918,916 29.8E 14.2S
DTASB20081,298 860Simukonda, 20098,916 29.8E 14.2S
+ Luambe National ParkNPASB20129 16Frederick, 20123331 31.6E 13.3S
NPASB20129 16Frederick, 2012331 31.6E 13.3S
+ Lukusuzi National ParkRSASB20120Frederick, 201222,611 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB20120Frederick, 20122,611 31.6E 13.3S
+ Lumimba Game Management AreaRSASB201270 92Frederick, 201224,156 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB201270 92Frederick, 20124,156 31.6E 13.3S
+ Lunga Luswishi Game Management AreaRSASB20110Frederick, 2011113,462 25.8E 14.9S
RSASB20110Frederick, 201113,462 25.8E 14.9S
+ Lupande Game Management AreaRSASB2012505 335Frederick, 201224,385 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB2012505 335Frederick, 20124,385 31.6E 13.3S
+ Mosi-oa-Tunya National ParkDTATA200831Simukonda, 2009467 25.8E 17.9S
DTATA200831Simukonda, 200967 25.8E 17.9S
+ Mukungule Game Management AreaDAASD2011109Simukonda, 201221,815 31.4E 13.5S
DAASD2011109Simukonda, 20121,815 31.4E 13.5S
+ Mulobezi Game Management AreaRSASB2011824 1,027Frederick, 201123,600 25.8E 14.9S
RSASB2011824 1,027Frederick, 20113,600 25.8E 14.9S
+ Mumbwa Game Management AreaRSASB2011422 572Frederick, 201123,181 25.8E 14.9S
RSASB2011422 572Frederick, 20113,181 25.8E 14.9S
+ Munyamadzi Game Management AreaRSASB20121,427 1,129Frederick, 201222,659 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB20121,427 1,129Frederick, 20122,659 31.6E 13.3S
+ Musalangu Game Management AreaRSASB2012823 564Frederick, 201218,920 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB2012823 564Frederick, 20128,920 31.6E 13.3S
+ Namwala Game Management AreaDAASB20110Frederick, 201123,161 25.8E 14.9S
DAASB20110Frederick, 20113,161 25.8E 14.9S
+ Nkala Game Management AreaRSASB20110Frederick, 20113211 25.8E 14.9S
RSASB20110Frederick, 2011211 25.8E 14.9S
+ North Luangwa National ParkRSASB20122,214 727Frederick, 201224,673 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB20122,214 727Frederick, 20124,673 31.6E 13.3S
+ Sandwe Game Manangement Area RSASB20120Frederick, 201221,267 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB20120Frederick, 20121,267 31.6E 13.3S
+ Sekula Island DAATA20081Simukonda, 200957 27.5E 17.4S
DAATA20081Simukonda, 20097 27.5E 17.4S
+ Sichifulo Game Management AreaDAASB20110Frederick, 201122,900 25.8E 14.9S
DAASB20110Frederick, 20112,900 25.8E 14.9S
+ Sioma NgweziRSASB2013133 149Chase et al., 201324,322 23.4E 17.3S
RSASB2013133 149Chase et al., 20134,322 23.4E 17.3S
+ South Luangwa National ParkRSASB20122,183 958Frederick, 201228,625 31.6E 13.3S
RSASB20122,183 958Frederick, 20128,625 31.6E 13.3S
+ Tanganyika EcosystemDAASB200827 47Simukonda, 200927,082 29.8E 14.2S
DAASB200827 47Simukonda, 20097,082 29.8E 14.2S
+ West Lunga National Park-ASE1996520C.M. Phiri, pers. comm., 199821,684 24.8E 12.8S
-ASE1996520C.M. Phiri, pers. comm., 19981,684 24.8E 12.8S
+ West Petauke Game Management AreaRSASB20090WCS Flight Programme, 200921,718 32.1E 12.6S
RSASB20090WCS Flight Programme, 20091,718 32.1E 12.6S
+ West Zambezi and Kazungula landscapeNPASD200844Simukonda, 2009124,538 29.8E 14.2S
NPASB20080Simukonda, 20095,112 29.8E 14.2S
NPASD200844Simukonda, 200919,426 29.8E 14.2S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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