Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Zimbabwe: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Zimbabwe

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts3040.5396
Aerial Sample Counts70,1516,97459.548,354
Informed Guesses1,53805083.62,895
Degraded Data17,15717,15727.622,400
Totals 201571,9936,97317,15717,665  
Totals 200687,3386,977534625  
Assessed Range91.274,046
Unassessed Range8.87,182
Total Range10081,228

Summary Totals for Zimbabwe

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts304000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts63,1776,9746,9740
Informed Guesses1,53800508
Other Guesses2,9350014,222
Totals 201367,9546,9746,97414,730
Totals 200680,3606,9787,312291

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-4,805±8,9590033.427,155
Different Technique+35±99-200-2003.02,453
Different Area+5,237±1,679007.25,878
New Guess+1,011±3100+5083.62,895
Data Degraded-16,823±2,277+16,823+16,73227.622,399

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-5,955+1,150+3,8460
Different Technique+5+30+99-200
Different Area+2,727+2,510+3,1480
New Guess+1,321-310-310+508
Data Degraded-8,274-5,614-6,006+14,131

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-7,259+2-1,6730
Different Technique+60-43-200
Different Area+3,324+4-1,3690
New Guess+1,610-1+135+508
Data Degraded-10,086-10+2,613+14,131

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts3960396
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts48,354048,354
Informed Guesses2,89502,895
Other Guesses22,28012022,400
Unassessed Range6,2878967,182

Zimbabwe: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Binga Communal Lands-ASB2006431 373Dunham et al., 2006a22,217 27.9E 17.4S
-ASB2006431 373Dunham et al., 2006a2,217 27.9E 17.4S
+ Bubiana ConservancyDDOE200150 50*Dunham & Mackie, 200221,772 29.8E 21.1S
DDOE200150 50*Dunham & Mackie, 20021,772 29.8E 21.1S
+ Bubi Valley ConservancyDDOE200153Dunham & Mackie, 200222,895 30.1E 21.5S
DDOE200153Dunham & Mackie, 20022,895 30.1E 21.5S
+ Chete Safari Area-ASB2006971 310Dunham et al., 2006a21,260 27.8E 17.4S
-ASB2006971 310Dunham et al., 2006a1,260 27.8E 17.4S
+ Chewore Safari AreaDAASB20105,0481,098Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 201123,401 29.9E 16.0S
DAASB20101,488 468Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011840 29.9E 16.0S
DAASB20101,360 724Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 20111,054 29.9E 16.0S
DAASB20101,974 748Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011897 29.9E 16.0S
DAASB2010226 327Kuvawoga & Gandiwa, 2011610 29.9E 16.0S
+ Chiredzi River ConservancyDDGTE200128Dunham & Mackie, 20022895 31.6E 20.8S
DDGTE200128Dunham & Mackie, 2002895 31.6E 20.8S
+ Chirisa Safari Area-ASB20064,231 1,260Dunham et al., 2006a21,529 28.3E 17.9S
-ASB20064,231 1,260Dunham et al., 2006a1,529 28.3E 17.9S
+ Chizarira National Park-ASB20063,071 1,117Dunham et al., 2006a22,084 27.9E 17.8S
-ASB20063,071 1,117Dunham et al., 2006a2,084 27.9E 17.8S
+ Doma Safari AreaDDASE2001336 383Mackie, 2002a2975 30.2E 16.4S
DDASE2001336 383Mackie, 2002a975 30.2E 16.4S
+ Gonarezhou National ParkRSASB201310,151 1,922Dunham et al., 201314,941 31.8E 21.6S
RSASB201310,151 1,922Dunham et al., 20134,941 31.8E 21.6S
+ Hartley Safari AreaDDOE2001100 20*Dunham & Mackie, 20023445 29.6E 17.9S
DDOE2001100 20*Dunham & Mackie, 2002445 29.6E 17.9S
+ Home Farm & Greystone RanchesDDOE20013 1*Dunham & Mackie, 2002360 27.9E 20.8S
DDOE20013 1*Dunham & Mackie, 200260 27.9E 20.8S
+ Hwange National ParkRSASB200734,322 4,863Dunham et al., 2007b115,219 27.0E 19.6S
RSASB200734,322 4,863Dunham et al., 2007b15,219 27.0E 19.6S
+ Kariba Communal Areas-ASB20063,715 1,033Dunham et al., 2006a23,224 28.4E 17.1S
-ASB20063,715 1,033Dunham et al., 2006a3,224 28.4E 17.1S
+ Kavira Forest LandDDOE2001100Dunham & Mackie, 20022287 27.0E 18.1S
DDOE2001100Dunham & Mackie, 2002287 27.0E 18.1S
+ LusuluDDASE200133 63Mackie, 2002b2543 27.8E 18.0S
DDASE200133 63Mackie, 2002b543 27.8E 18.0S
+ Mahenye WardRSASB2013128 144Dunham et al., 20133221 31.8E 21.6S
RSASB2013128 144Dunham et al., 2013221 31.8E 21.6S
+ Malapati Safari AreaRSASB20130Dunham et al., 20133177 31.8E 21.6S
RSASB20130Dunham et al., 2013177 31.8E 21.6S
+ Malilangwe ConservancyDDATE2001116Dunham & Mackie, 20022425 31.9E 21.1S
DDATE2001116Dunham & Mackie, 2002425 31.9E 21.1S
+ Mambali Communal LandsDDATE200110Dunham & Mackie, 20022327 28.4E 21.5S
DDATE200110Dunham & Mackie, 2002327 28.4E 21.5S
+ Maramani Communal LandsRSATA20100Selier & Page, 20103361 29.3E 22.1S
RSATA20100Selier & Page, 2010361 29.3E 22.1S
+ Matabeleland Communal areasDAASB2007833 1,439Dunham et al., 2007b22,608 27.0E 19.6S
DAASB2007833 1,439Dunham et al., 2007b2,608 27.0E 19.6S
+ Matetsi Safari Complex RSASB20071,829 1,098Dunham et al., 2007b14,399 27.0E 19.6S
RSASB20071,829 1,098Dunham et al., 2007b4,399 27.0E 19.6S
+ Matibi II Communal Lands-ASE19960Davies et al., 19963400 31.7E 21.5S
-ASE19960Davies et al., 1996400 31.7E 21.5S
+ Matusadona National Park-ASB20061,925 443Dunham et al., 2006a21,413 28.6E 17.0S
-ASB20061,925 443Dunham et al., 2006a1,413 28.6E 17.0S
+ Mavuradonha Wilderness AreaDDASE200113 26Dunham & Mackie, 20022617 30.9E 16.5S
DDASE200113 26Dunham & Mackie, 2002617 30.9E 16.5S
+ Mukwiche AreaDDASE2001228 296Mackie, 2002a2337 29.9E 16.4S
DDASE2001228 296Mackie, 2002a337 29.9E 16.4S
+ Ngamo & Sikumi Forest AreasRSASB20072,781 5,342Dunham et al., 2007b22,344 27.0E 19.6S
RSASB20072,781 5,342Dunham et al., 2007b2,344 27.0E 19.6S
+ North Gokwe Communal Lands-ASB2006192 172Dunham et al., 2006a23,082 28.5E 17.5S
-ASB2006192 172Dunham et al., 2006a3,082 28.5E 17.5S
+ Nyatana Wildlife Management AreaDDOE2001150Dunham & Mackie, 20022651 32.5E 16.7S
DDOE2001150Dunham & Mackie, 2002651 32.5E 16.7S
+ Protea FarmDDOE20017Dunham & Mackie, 2002414 29.6E 16.5S
DDOE20017Dunham & Mackie, 200214 29.6E 16.5S
+ Rest of Zambezi valley DDASE200315,8702,224Dunham, 2004a111,636 30.0E 15.9S
DDASE20031,813 903Dunham, 2004a1,670 30.0E 15.9S
DDASE20032,850 1,080Dunham, 2004a3,622 30.0E 15.9S
DDASE20034,732 1,268Dunham, 2004a3,054 30.0E 15.9S
DDASE20034,285 1,080Dunham, 2004a2,187 30.0E 15.9S
DDASE20032,190 790Dunham, 2004a1,103 30.0E 15.9S
+ Save Valley ConservancyNGOD20131,538 508*Savé Valley Conservancy, 201323,530 32.1E 20.4S
NGOD20131,538 508*Savé Valley Conservancy, 20133,530 32.1E 20.4S
+ Sengwe Communal LandDTASB20133599Dunham et al., 201322,488 31.8E 21.6S
DTASB20130Dunham et al., 2013329 31.8E 21.6S
DTASB20130Dunham et al., 20131,257 31.8E 21.6S
DTASB201335 99Dunham et al., 2013902 31.8E 21.6S
+ Sentinel & NottinghamRSATA2010304Selier & Page, 20102760 29.3E 22.1S
RSATA2010304Selier & Page, 2010760 29.3E 22.1S
+ Shangani RanchDDOE200160 20*Dunham & Mackie, 20022628 29.3E 19.6S
DDOE200160 20*Dunham & Mackie, 2002628 29.3E 19.6S
+ Sijarira Forest Area-ASB2006488 333Dunham et al., 2006a3270 27.5E 17.6S
-ASB2006488 333Dunham et al., 2006a270 27.5E 17.6S
+ Tuli Safari AreaRSATA20100Selier & Page, 20103500 29.3E 22.1S
RSATA20100Selier & Page, 2010500 29.3E 22.1S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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