Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Zimbabwe
2016 African Elephant Status Report

  1. Reports
  2. 2016
  3. Africa
  4. Southern Africa
  5. Zimbabwe

All Years for Zimbabwe: 2016 — 2013 — 2007 — 2002 — 1998 — 1995

Summary Totals for Zimbabwe

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range		Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts484———1.0819
Aerial Sample Counts82,1268,589——80.665,502
Informed Guesses20—5275674.63,777
Other Guesses——1,0911,22110.38,399
Degraded Data——17170.4342
Totals 201582,6308,5891,6351,805  
Totals 200693,1227,068534625  
Assessed Range97.178,839
Unassessed Range2.92,389
Total Range10081,228

Summary Totals for Zimbabwe

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts484000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts73,5378,5898,5890
Informed Guesses20052740
Other Guesses181001,101
Totals 201574,2228,5899,1161,141
Totals 200686,0537,0697,403291

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-10,320±11,1240078.663,868
New Population00+713+7135.64,563
Different Technique+7±99-145-1454.13,370
Different Area+200-3+360.033
New Guess-1820+519+5598.26,662
Data Degraded-170+17+170.00
Totals-10,492±11,124+1,101+1,18096.678,839

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-33,815+23,495+34,9900
New Population00+527+186
Different Technique-23+30+99-145
Different Area+200-3+39
New Guess-80-331+760
Totals-33,826+23,525+35,282+840

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-11,827+1,518+1,6990
New Population00+26+188
Different Technique-8+2+5-147
Different Area+700+39
New Guess-30-16+769
Totals-11,831+1,520+1,713+850
toggle scaling

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts8190819
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts65,37512765,502
Informed Guesses3,745323,777
Other Guesses8,74108,741
Unassessed Range1,5338572,389
Totals80,2131,01681,228

Zimbabwe: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Chegutu Safari AreaNGOE2014150Dunham, 20152445 29.6E 17.9S
NGOE2014150Dunham, 2015445 29.6E 17.9S
Greater Mapungubwe
+ Tuli, Maramani, Sentinel, NottinghamRSATA2014212Selier & Page, 201521,192 29.4E 22.0S
RSATA2014154Selier & Page, 2015777 29.4E 22.0S
RSATA201458Selier & Page, 2015415 29.4E 22.0S
Lower Zambezi Valley
+ Chewore I and IIIRSASB20142,709851 Dunham et al., 2015c21,773 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20141,491 740 Dunham et al., 2015c796 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20141,218 594 Dunham et al., 2015c977 29.9E 16.1S
+ Chewore IIRSASB2014594 333 Dunham et al., 2015c21,058 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014594 333 Dunham et al., 2015c1,058 29.9E 16.1S
+ Chewore IVRSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c3472 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c472 29.9E 16.1S
+ Doma Safari AreaRSASB2014153 194 Dunham et al., 2015c2991 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014153 194 Dunham et al., 2015c991 29.9E 16.1S
+ Mavuradonha Wilderness AreaRSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c2652 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c273 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c379 29.9E 16.1S
+ Mukwiche AreaRSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c3337 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c337 29.9E 16.1S
+ Protea Farm-OE20017Dunham & Mackie, 2002414 29.6E 16.5S
-OE20017Dunham & Mackie, 200214 29.6E 16.5S
+ Rest of Zambezi valleyRSASB20148,2002,029 Dunham et al., 2015c111,720 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014417 774 Dunham et al., 2015c282 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c759 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20141,082 1,234 Dunham et al., 2015c991 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20141,356 592 Dunham et al., 2015c1,208 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB201485 145 Dunham et al., 2015c673 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c779 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c592 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014348 774 Dunham et al., 2015c207 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB201457 51 Dunham et al., 2015c147 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014237 305 Dunham et al., 2015c462 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014888 516 Dunham et al., 2015c319 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20141,859 727 Dunham et al., 2015c1,388 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014145 191 Dunham et al., 2015c524 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB201436 57 Dunham et al., 2015c733 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20141,112 1,048 Dunham et al., 2015c615 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014428 270 Dunham et al., 2015c316 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB2014150 281 Dunham et al., 2015c796 29.9E 16.1S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015c929 29.9E 16.1S
+ Mambali Communal Lands-ATE200110Dunham & Mackie, 20022327 28.4E 21.5S
-ATE200110Dunham & Mackie, 2002327 28.4E 21.5S
+ Mangwe DamDAOD201420 40*Dunham, 20153291 28.1E 20.7S
DAOD201420 40*Dunham, 2015291 28.1E 20.7S
Northwest Matabeleland
+ Fuller Forest LandNPOD2014308Dunham, 2015310,000 25.9E 18.1S
NPOD2014308Dunham, 201510,000 25.9E 18.1S
+ Gwaai, Bembesi, and Umguza Forest LandsNPOD2014165Dunham, 201521,442 28.0E 19.3S
NPOD2014165Dunham, 20151,442 28.0E 19.3S
+ Gwampa/Lake Alice Forest LandsNPOE2014150Dunham, 20152860 28.5E 19.1S
NPOE2014150Dunham, 2015860 28.5E 19.1S
+ Hwange National ParkRSASB201445,8466,244Dunham et al., 2015a115,168 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20142,062 1,472Dunham et al., 2015a769 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB2014487 799Dunham et al., 2015a1,720 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20144,006 1,770Dunham et al., 2015a1,279 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20143,198 1,660Dunham et al., 2015a2,104 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20147,474 3,422Dunham et al., 2015a1,253 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,947 1,293Dunham et al., 2015a824 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20147,937 2,747Dunham et al., 2015a1,630 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20144,941 2,152Dunham et al., 2015a1,017 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,355 1,561Dunham et al., 2015a2,148 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20147,985 2,166Dunham et al., 2015a913 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20144,454 2,234Dunham et al., 2015a1,511 26.4E 18.8S
+ Matabeleland Communal areasRSASB20142,2013,062Dunham et al., 2015a23,075 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB2014733 1,673Dunham et al., 2015a1,203 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,468 3,476Dunham et al., 2015a914 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20140Dunham et al., 2015a958 26.4E 18.8S
+ Matetsi Safari Complex RSASB20144,8432,968Dunham et al., 2015a14,384 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB2014148 452Dunham et al., 2015a551 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB2014151 259Dunham et al., 2015a437 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,451 2,394Dunham et al., 2015a697 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,400 2,757Dunham et al., 2015a955 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20140Dunham et al., 2015a349 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB201452 123Dunham et al., 2015a548 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,641 1,483Dunham et al., 2015a847 26.4E 18.8S
+ NakavangoNPOE201436Dunham, 2015310,000 25.8E 18.0S
NPOE201436Dunham, 201510,000 25.8E 18.0S
+ Ngamo & Sikumi Forest AreasRSASB20141,101993Dunham et al., 2015a22,332 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20141,101 1,198Dunham et al., 2015a1,174 26.4E 18.8S
RSASB20140Dunham et al., 2015a1,158 26.4E 18.8S
+ Nyatana Wildlife Management AreaNGOE201430Dunham, 20152651 32.5E 16.7S
NGOE201430Dunham, 2015651 32.5E 16.7S
Sebungwe
+ Binga Communal LandsRSASB201486162 Dunham et al., 2015b22,201 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201410 19 Dunham et al., 2015b425 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b1,295 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201476 212 Dunham et al., 2015b481 28.2E 17.4S
+ Chete Safari AreaRSASB2014278222 Dunham et al., 2015b21,242 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201449 109 Dunham et al., 2015b501 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014229 219 Dunham et al., 2015b741 28.2E 17.4S
+ Chirisa Safari AreaRSASB20141,200755 Dunham et al., 2015b21,530 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014293 471 Dunham et al., 2015b743 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201449 96 Dunham et al., 2015b414 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014858 665 Dunham et al., 2015b373 28.2E 17.4S
+ Chizarira National ParkRSASB2014747767 Dunham et al., 2015b22,096 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014424 625 Dunham et al., 2015b445 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014268 563 Dunham et al., 2015b968 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201455 120 Dunham et al., 2015b683 28.2E 17.4S
+ Kariba Communal AreasRSASB2014411364 Dunham et al., 2015b23,198 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201412 30 Dunham et al., 2015b73 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201439 102 Dunham et al., 2015b308 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b377 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b713 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014255 319 Dunham et al., 2015b990 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014105 214 Dunham et al., 2015b737 28.2E 17.4S
+ Kavira Forest LandNGOE201470 30*Dunham, 20152287 27.0E 18.1S
NGOE201470 30*Dunham, 2015287 27.0E 18.1S
+ LusuluRSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b2537 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b537 28.2E 17.4S
+ Matusadona National ParkRSASB2014669251 Dunham et al., 2015b21,366 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014369 201 Dunham et al., 2015b245 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014138 162 Dunham et al., 2015b1,005 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB2014162 102 Dunham et al., 2015b116 28.2E 17.4S
+ North Gokwe Communal LandsRSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b23,096 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b430 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b1,383 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b495 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB20140 Dunham et al., 2015b788 28.2E 17.4S
+ Sijarira Forest AreaRSASB201416 21 Dunham et al., 2015b3261 28.2E 17.4S
RSASB201416 21 Dunham et al., 2015b261 28.2E 17.4S
+ Shangani RanchNGOE2014174Dunham, 20152628 29.3E 19.6S
NGOE2014174Dunham, 2015628 29.3E 19.6S
Southeast Lowveld
+ Bubiana ConservancyNGOE2014100Dunham, 201521,772 29.8E 21.1S
NGOE2014100Dunham, 20151,772 29.8E 21.1S
+ Bubye Valley ConservancyNGOE2014500 100*Dunham, 201512,895 30.1E 21.5S
NGOE2014500 100*Dunham, 20152,895 30.1E 21.5S
+ Chiredzi River ConservancyDTOE201455Dunham, 20152895 31.6E 20.8S
DTOE201455Dunham, 2015895 31.6E 20.8S
+ Gonarezhou National ParkRSASB201411,1202,709Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 201514,941 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB20141,580 740Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 20151,012 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB20141,874 1,537Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015451 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB20143,384 1,697Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015603 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB20142,979 1,366Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 20151,075 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 201591 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB2014658 516Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015814 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB2014645 726Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015895 31.9E 21.5S
+ Mahenye WardRSASB2014332 519Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 20153221 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB2014332 519Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015221 31.9E 21.5S
+ Malapati Safari AreaRSASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 20153177 31.9E 21.5S
RSASB20140Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015177 31.9E 21.5S
+ Malilangwe ConservancyRSATA2013272Clegg, 20133425 31.9E 21.1S
RSATA2013272Clegg, 2013425 31.9E 21.1S
+ Matibi II Communal Lands-ASE19960Davies et al., 19963400 31.7E 21.5S
-ASE19960Davies et al., 1996400 31.7E 21.5S
+ Nuanetsi RanchNPOD201454Dunham, 2015210,000 30.8E 21.6S
NPOD201454Dunham, 201510,000 30.8E 21.6S
+ Save Valley ConservancyRSASB20141,5851,295Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 201523,496 32.1E 20.4S
RSASB2014467 977Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 20151,117 32.1E 20.4S
RSASB2014632 902Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015516 32.1E 20.4S
RSASB2014160 332Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 20151,004 32.1E 20.4S
RSASB2014326 422Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015859 32.1E 20.4S
+ Sengwe Communal LandDTASB20133599Dunham et al., 201322,488 31.8E 21.6S
DTASB20130Dunham et al., 2013329 31.8E 21.6S
DTASB20130Dunham et al., 20131,257 31.8E 21.6S
DTASB201335 99Dunham et al., 2013902 31.8E 21.6S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

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