Elephant Database
African Elephant Specialist Group

Provisional African Elephant Population Estimates: update to 31 Dec 2013

All Years for Mozambique: 201620132007200219981995

Summary Totals for Mozambique

Estimates from SurveysGuesses% Known and
Possible Range
Area (km2)
Survey categoryEstimate± 95% CLFromTo
Aerial Total Counts1,3623.611,385
Aerial Sample Counts17,8063,24024.879,567
Informed Guesses1493,0938,64262.2199,219
Degraded Data90900.92,889
Totals 201519,3173,2393,1838,732  
Totals 200614,8472,2607,1499,072  
Assessed Range91.5293,059
Unassessed Range8.527,342
Total Range100320,402

Summary Totals for Mozambique

Data Category Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Aerial or Ground Total Counts1,362000
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts14,5663,2403,2400
Informed Guesses14903,0935,549
Other Guesses150075
Totals 201316,0923,2406,3335,624
Totals 200612,5872,2602,4976,980

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

 Estimates from SurveysGuessesArea
Cause of Change Estimate ± 95% CL From To% Known and PossibleTotal
Repeat Survey-64±3,2960016.352,098
New Population+3,006±1,651004.715,107
Different Technique+1,491±1,411-5,130-6,8307.423,747
New Guess+1270+1,074+6,40062.2199,219
Data Degraded-90±149+90+900.92,889

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-484+420+4200
New Population+1,300+1,706+1,7990
Different Technique+326+1,165+965-4,980
New Guess+1270+3,056+3,809
Data Degraded+1500+75

Interpretation of Changes in Estimates from Previous Report (2007 scaling)

Cause of Change Definite Probable Possible Speculative
Repeat Survey-1,320+125+2580
New Population+3,549+508+1,1060
Different Technique+889+347+594-6,161
New Guess+3470+1,879+4,713
Data Degraded+4100+93

Area of Range Covered by Each Data Category (km²)

Data CategoryKnown RangePossible RangeTotal Range
Aerial or Ground Total Counts11,385011,385
Direct Sample Counts and Reliable Dung Counts75,7773,79079,567
Informed Guesses167,57331,647199,219
Other Guesses2,88902,889
Unassessed Range25,7641,57827,342

Mozambique: Elephant Estimates

Cause ofSurvey Details2 Number of Elephants Area Map Location
Input ZoneChange1TypeReliab.YearEstimate95% C.L. SourcePFS3 (km²) Lon. Lat.
+ Banhine National ParkNGOD20125Stalmans, pers. comm., 201226,510 32.9E 22.8S
NGOD20125Stalmans, pers. comm., 20126,510 32.9E 22.8S
+ Cabo Delgado Province (partial)DTASB2011232 191Craig, 2012b27,246 39.6E 12.0S
DTASB2011232 191Craig, 2012b7,246 39.6E 12.0S
+ Cabora Bassa NorthDDASE200390 160Dunham, 2004a23,708 30.7E 15.4S
DDASE200390 160Dunham, 2004a3,708 30.7E 15.4S
+ Chipanje ChetuNPASB2011333 309Craig, 2012a26,641 35.2E 12.3S
NPASB2011333 309Craig, 2012a6,641 35.2E 12.3S
+ Gilé National ReserveNGOD201221 145*Ntumi et al., 201222,456 38.4E 16.6S
NGOD201221 145*Ntumi et al., 20122,456 38.4E 16.6S
+ Gorongosa National ParkNGOD201287 213*Poole, 201223,689 34.4E 19.0S
NGOD201287 213*Poole, 20123,689 34.4E 19.0S
+ Limpopo National ParkRSATA20101,014Bassair Aviation, 2010210,000 31.8E 23.2S
RSATA20101,014Bassair Aviation, 201010,000 31.8E 23.2S
+ Magoe DistrictDTASB20101,9841,061Dunham, 2010216,584 25.7E 8.9S
DTASB2010519 243Dunham, 201013,963 25.7E 8.9S
DTASB20101,465 1,079Dunham, 20102,621 25.7E 8.9S
+ Maputo Elephant Reserve and Futi corridorDTATA2008348Matthews, 20083827 32.8E 26.5S
DTATA2008348Matthews, 2008827 32.8E 26.5S
+ Massangena WestNPASB2009136 201Dunham et al., 201022,286 33.6E 21.6S
NPASB2009136 201Dunham et al., 20102,286 33.6E 21.6S
+ Niassa Adjacent BlocksNPASB20092,537 1,289Craig, 200926,700 37.4E 12.1S
NPASB20092,537 1,289Craig, 20096,700 37.4E 12.1S
+ Niassa EcosystemRSASB201112,029 2,531Craig, 2011a142,295 37.4E 12.2S
RSASB201112,029 2,531Craig, 2011a42,295 37.4E 12.2S
+ Quirimbas National ParkDTASB2011555 448Craig, 2012b29,770 39.6E 12.0S
DTASB2011555 448Craig, 2012b9,770 39.6E 12.0S
+ Rest of Mozambique rangeNGOD20083,129 5,191*Ministério da Agricultura, 20081511,467 34.1E 19.0S
NGOD20083,129 5,191*Ministério da Agricultura, 2008511,467 34.1E 19.0S

* Range of informed guess

1Key to Causes of Change (only tracked since 2007): DA: Different Area; DD: Data Degraded; DT: Different Technique; NA: New Analysis; NG: New Guess; NP: New population; PL: Population Lost; RS: Repeat Survey (RS ́ denotes a repeat survey that is not statistically comparable for reasons such as different season); –––: No Change

2Key to Survey Types: AC: Aerial Count, not specified; AS: Aerial Sample Count; AT: Aerial Total Count; DC: Dung Count; EX: Extrapolation from GIS; GD: Genetic Dung Count; GS: Ground Sample Count; GT: Ground Total Count; IG: Informed Guess; IR: Individual Registration; OG: Other Guess. Survey Type is followed by an indicator of survey quality, ranked from 1 to 3 (best to worst). Survey Reliability is keyed A-E (best to worst) as outlined in this table.

3PFS: Priority for Future Surveys, ranked from 1 to 5 (highest to lowest). Based on the precision of estimates and the proportion of national range accounted for by the site in question, PFS is a measure of the importance and urgency for future population surveys. All areas of unassessed range have a priority of 1. See Introduction for details on how the PFS is derived.

Note that totals for the Definite, Probable, and Possible categories are derived by pooling the variances of individual estimates, as described at http://www.africanelephantdatabase.org/reliability. As a result, totals do not necessarily match the simple sum of the entries within a given category.

IUCNSpecies Survival Commission

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